Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd · Wales March 2026Mawrth 2026
Economic Impact ReportAdroddiad Effaith Economaidd
Advanced Circular Manufacturing State A vs. State BCyflwr BCyflwr A vs. Cyflwr B DeltaDelta AnalysisDadansoddiad DeltaDelta Prepared by Carbotura, Inc.Carbotura, Inc.Paratowyd gan Carbotura, Inc.Carbotura, Inc. · Confidential· Cyfrinachol
Accounting Standard: CIPFA (Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy)Safon Cyfrifyddu: CIPFA (Sefydliad Siartredig Cyllid a Chyfrifyddiaeth Cyhoeddus)
At the planning-basis disposal cost, ACM deployment structurally eliminates Newport's post-contract feedstock exposure, produces a per-tonne Circular Royalty™ receipt stream that exceeds the Beneficiation Fee from Year 2Blwyddyn 2 (separate transactions), and grows the spread through steady state — with zero Council capex at any phase.
Sections
Inherited Data Flags
ConfidenceHyder Classifications Carried Forward from Proposal — Plain EnglishDosbarthiadau Hyder a Gariwyd Ymlaen o'r Cynnig — Iaith Syml
- Beneficiation Fee base per tonne — data gap pending Term Sheet phase verification. All absolute £ values for Beneficiation Fee obligations and Circular Royalty™ receipts cannot be calculated until Term Sheet phase verification verifies Newport's confirmed disposal cost. Structural relationships are fully defined.
- Phase Initial blended FWDC (~£55–80/tonne) — estimated from publicly available benchmarks. Prosiect Gwyrdd gate fee commercially confidential. Individual stream contract costscostau not publicly disclosed.
- Phase Initial feedstock volumes (~34–48 TPDTPD immediately accessible) — estimated. Formal Newport-specific WasteDataFlow breakdown not retrieved.
- ERF disposal cost for contracted streams (~£95–115/tonne) — estimated. Prosiect Gwyrdd commercial terms not publicly disclosed.
- Biosolids and food/garden waste disposal costscostau — estimated. No public contract data available.
- Site — ABP Atlantic SiteSafle'r Iwerydd ABP (PriorityBlaenoriaeth 1) — provisional. Subject to ABP commercial lease agreement.
- Deployment timelineCarbotura standardSafon Carbotura deployment scheduleAmserlen Defnyddio Safon Carbotura. Calendar dates provisional pending Term Sheet phase verification.
§1 — Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1 — What This Report Measures§1.1 — Beth Mae'r Adroddiad Hwn yn ei Fesur
This Economic Impact ReportAdroddiad Effaith Economaidd measures the delta between two defined states:
STATE A Without Carbotura:Heb Carbotura: Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd continues its current manufacturing feedstock management system — contracted residual to Viridor Waste Management Limited's Cardiff ERF under Prosiect Gwyrdd; non-contracted streams via composting, anaerobic digestion, land application, and Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd landfillTirlenwi Cyngor Dinas Casnewydd; no successor infrastructure planned for post-Prosiect Gwyrdd contract expirydiweddDiwedd contract Prosiect Gwyrdd (~2040–41).
STATE B With Carbotura:Gyda Carbotura: Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd enters a 30-year Circular Supply AgreementCytundeb Cyflenwi Cylchol with Carbotura, Inc.Carbotura, Inc. Phase Initial deploys a 100 TPDTPD ACM facility processing non-contracted streams. Phase Expanded (200 TPDTPD) absorbs contracted streams as Prosiect Gwyrdd approaches expirydiwedd. The Council pays a Beneficiation Fee; receives rolling monthly Circular Royalty™ from Month 13; at steady state, per-tonne Circular Royalty™ exceeds per-tonne Beneficiation Fee (separate transactions).
Neither state is re-diagnosed here. All State A values trace to the Waste Study. All State BCyflwr B values trace to the Proposal EIR Input BlockBloc Mewnbwn yr AEE. This report quantifies the difference.
§1.2 — Decision Summary Table§1.2 — Tabl Crynodeb Penderfyniad
| DimensionDimensiwn | STATE A | STATE B | DeltaDelta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual disposal obligation — Phase Initial volume | ~£[FWDC × ~36,500 tpytpy] — escalating | ~£[Beneficiation Fee × ~36,500 tpytpy] — structurally capped | Beneficiation Fee ≤ FWDC by formula; gross displacement ≥ £5/tonne by formula | |
| Post-Prosiect Gwyrdd feedstock destination | None confirmed | Phase Expanded CSA in place — structured | Structural gap eliminatedBwlch strwythurol wedi'i ddileu | |
| Council capital obligationRhwymedigaeth gyfalaf y Cyngor | £0£0 | £0£0 | EqualCyfartal | |
| Circular Royalty™ receipt | £0£0 (no equivalent) | £0£0 Year 1Blwyddyn 1; rolling from Month 13 | +£[Royalty × ~36,500 tpytpy] from Year 2Blwyddyn 2 | |
| Per-tonne fiscal flows (Council) | Full disposal cost | Year 1Blwyddyn 1: Fee paid; Royalty $0 (pre-royalty). Year 2Blwyddyn 2+: Royalty exceeds Fee per tonne (separate transactions); Steady state: Royalty > Fee | Royalty − Fee spread positive at steady state by designdyluniad | |
| 30-year cost trajectory | Compounding escalation — ERF index-linked; landfill tax escalating; composting/AD escalating | Beneficiation Fee: 2.5%/yr (capped); Royalty exceeds TMC at steady state | TMC growth bounded; Royalty growth > TMC growth | |
| Key data gap | Beneficiation Fee base (£/tonne) — requires Term Sheet phase verification FWDC verification | All absolute £ values pending | ||
| Cost of delay (per year) | State A disposal costscostau continue on Phase Initial volume + post-2040 buffer compresses by 1 year | Compounding and non-recoverableCymhlosgol ac anadferadwy | ||
| Classification (RPT)Amod Dosbarthiad | ACM permitted only under manufacturing NAICS (325180 / 325998 / 327992 / 331110 / 331314 / 331492 — six-code manufacturing set). Solid waste codes (562212 / 562213 / 562219 / 562920) are expressly excluded. Both parties commit to the RPT pathway; the endpoint is categorical — manufacturing classification across all permitting, licensing, and regulatory contexts. Interim bridging authorities may apply during the transition. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e).Caniateir ACM yn unig o dan NAICS gweithgynhyrchu (325180 / 325998 / 327992 / 331110 / 331314 / 331492 — set chwe-chod gweithgynhyrchu). Mae dosbarthiad gwastraff solet (562212 / 562213 / 562219 / 562920) yn terfynu'r ymgysylltiad. Sail ffederal: Deiseb Gwaharddiad Gwastraff Solet RCRA EPA (yn aros i'w ffeilio). | Standing condition · MR §3Amod sefydlog · MR §3 | ||
Analysis BasisSylfaen Dadansoddi — Strwythur CSA (Etholiad Safonol)
This Economic Impact Report models the Delta between State A (current disposal trajectory) and State B (Carbotura CSA). All delta calculations assume Newport City Council pays Beneficiation Fee; receives Circular Royalty™ at 120%+ from Month 13.5 and §4.1–§4.1 for full CSA Structure and cash-flow schedules. during Term Sheet phase verification.Mae'r Adroddiad Effaith Economaidd hwn yn modelu'r Delta rhwng Cyflwr A (llwybr gwaredu presennol) a Chyflwr B (CSA Carbotura, Etholiad Safonol Strwythur CSA). Mae Strwythur CSA (Cyfnewid Royalty Adnoddau'r Awdurdod Rhanbarthol) a Bonws Royalty Exogenesis™ (Ffordd y Dociau, IE-AMODOL) ar gael yn strwythurol — gweler Cynnig §1.5 a §4.1–§4.1.
§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation§1.3 — Gwahaniaeth Rhwng Effaith Ariannol a Rhanbarthol
Required declaration:Datganiad Gofynnol: Council fiscal effects (Beneficiation Fee obligations paid, Circular Royalty™ receipts — reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle) and regional economic impact (jobs, economic contribution, manufactured product value) are categorically distinct. They have different accountability structures, different reporting standards, and different decision implications. They are presented separately throughout this report and must not be aggregated in any budget or financial statement.
§2 — State A Baseline
Source: Waste Study. All values from locked Assumption Registry or Waste Study. No new diagnosis.
§2.1 — State A Feedstock Volume and Disposition§2.1 — Cyfaint a Dosbarthiad Bwyd-stoc Cyflwr A
| StreamFfrwd | tpytpy | TPDTPD | Current RouteLlwybr Presennol | OperatorGweithredwr | Access Class. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerbside residual householdGwastraff cartref gweddilliol ymyl y palmant | 14,832 | 40.6 | Cardiff ERF (Prosiect Gwyrdd)ERF Caerdydd (Prosiect Gwyrdd) | Viridor Waste Management Limited | CONDITIONAL (~2040+)AMODOL (~2040+) |
| HWRC residualGweddilliol HWRC | ~7,500 | ~20.5 | Cardiff ERF (Prosiect Gwyrdd)ERF Caerdydd (Prosiect Gwyrdd) | Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd / Viridor | CONDITIONAL (~2040+)AMODOL (~2040+) |
| Commercial / trade residualGweddilliol Masnachol | ~8,000 | ~21.9 | Private ERF / landfill routesLlwybrau ERF / tirlenwi preifat | VariousAmrywiol | CONDITIONAL |
| Food waste (captured) | ~5,500 | ~15.1 | Composting / AD contractorsContractwyr Compostio / DA | VariousAmrywiol | IMMEDIATEAR UNWAITH |
| Garden waste | ~7,000 | ~19.2 | Composting contractors | VariousAmrywiol | IMMEDIATEAR UNWAITH |
| Biosolids (Welsh Water) | ~2,500 | ~6.8 | Land application (BAS scheme)Cymhwyso ar dir (cynllun BAS) | Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water | ACCESSIBLEHYGYRCH |
| C&D residualGweddilliol Adeiladu a Dymchwel / specialist/ arbenigol | ~2,000 | ~5.5 | Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd landfillTirlenwi Cyngor Dinas Casnewydd | Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd | ACCESSIBLEHYGYRCH |
| TotalCyfanswm | ~47,332 | ~129.7 | |||
§2.2 — State A Cost Structure§2.2 — Strwythur Cost Cyflwr A
| StreamFfrwd | Cost per TonneCost fesul Tunnell | Annual Cost (~tpytpy)Cost Blynyddol (~tpytpy) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerbside residual + HWRC (ERF, Prosiect Gwyrdd)Gweddilliol ymyl y palmant + HWRC (ERF, Prosiect Gwyrdd) | ~£95–115/tonne | ~£2.1–2.5M/yr (on ~22,332 tpytpy) | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| Commercial / trade residualGweddilliol Masnachol | ~£80–100/tonne | ~£640K–800K/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| Food waste (composting/AD)Gwastraff bwyd (compostio/DA) | ~£30–50/tonne | ~£165K–275K/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| Garden waste (composting)Gwastraff gardd (compostio) | ~£25–45/tonne | ~£175K–315K/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| Biosolids (land application)Bioslodion (cymhwyso ar dir) | ~£40–60/tonne | ~£100K–150K/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| C&D + Newport landfill + landfill taxAdeiladu a Dymchwel + tirlenwi Casnewydd + treth tirlenwi | ~£80–100/tonne | ~£160K–200K/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
| TotalCyfanswm State A annual cost (all streams) | ~£55–80/tonne blended (non-ERF) | ~£3.3–4.2M/yr | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL |
§2.3 — State A Cost Trajectory: Three Compounding Mechanisms§2.3 — Llwybr Cost Cyflwr A: Tair Mecanwaith Cymhlosgol
Mechanism 1 —Mecanwaith 1 — Prosiect Gwyrdd contract indexation:Indecseiddio contract Prosiect Gwyrdd: The Viridor/Prosiect Gwyrdd EfW contract (December 2013, 25-year term) contains index-linked gate fee escalation. Newport's share of ERF disposal costscostau escalates annually. The escalator is commercially confidential — the direction is structurally certain.
Mechanism 2 —Mecanwaith 2 — UK landfill tax policy escalation:Uwchgyfraddu polisi treth tirlenwi'r DU: Landfill tax rose from £103.70/tonne (2024–25) to £126.15/tonne (2025–26) — a 21.6% single-year increase. Newport's own landfill facility is subject to this rate for any material that cannot be diverted to ERF. Policy trajectory indicates continued escalation.
Mechanism 3 —Mecanwaith 3 — Post-contract market exposure:Amlygiad marchnad ar ôl y contract: The Prosiect Gwyrdd contract expires approximately 2040–41. Newport currently has no confirmed successor. Post-2040 market rates for EfW gate fees — in a supply-constrained UK EfW market — are structurally likely to be higher than current contracted rates. This is not just cost escalation within the contract: it is open-market exposure at expirydiwedd.
§2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position§2.4 — Safle Amgylcheddol a Strwythurol Cyflwr A
| DimensionDimensiwn | State A Condition |
|---|---|
| Carbon profile | ~14,832 tpytpy residual to ERF generates CO₂ via thermal conversion; composting and land application generate methane and N₂O; Newport landfill generates methane |
| Recycling compliance | 70% target met 2024–25; wood recycling data quality caveat (gov.wales January 2026) may affect headline rate by ≥1 percentage point |
| Post-contract structural positionSafle strwythurol ar ôl y contract | Unplanned. No confirmed successor disposal infrastructure for ~61 TPDTPD after ~2040–41. |
| Regulatory exposure (biosolids) | Ofwat enforcement on Welsh Water active (July 2024); biosolids land application under pressure |
§3 — State B
Source: Proposal EIR Input BlockBloc Mewnbwn yr AEE only. No new values introduced.
§3.2 — Deployment Configuration§3.2 — Ffurfwedd Defnyddio
| Phase | TPDTPD | ModulesModiwlau | Annual FeedstockBwyd-stoc Blynyddol | COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | 1 ceil(100/100)=1 | ~36,500 tpytpy | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura deployment scheduleAmserlen Defnyddio Safon Carbotura |
| Phase MediumCanolig | 100 additional | 1 additional | ~36,500 tpytpy incremental | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura deployment scheduleAmserlen Defnyddio Safon Carbotura |
| Phase Expanded | 200 totalcyfanswm | 2 ceil(200/100)=2 | ~73,000 tpytpy | ~2040+ (post-Prosiect Gwyrdd transition) |
§3.3 — State BCyflwr B Economic Terms§3.3 — Termau Economaidd Cyflwr B
| Parameter | ValueGwerth | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee base per tonne | Data Gap — Term Sheet phase verificationBwlch Data — Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb Data Gap | NULL |
| Beneficiation Fee annual escalatorSgaliwr blynyddol Ffi TMCSgaliwr blynyddol Beneficiation Fee | 2.5% per year | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
| Circular Royalty™ base | 120% of Year 1Blwyddyn 1 Beneficiation Fee per tonneFfi TMC fesul tunnellBeneficiation Fee fesul tunnell | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
| Circular Royalty™ annual escalatorSgaliwr blynyddol Royalty CylcholSgaliwr blynyddol Circular Royalty™ | +1 percentage point per year | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
| Circular Royalty™ payment lag | 13 months | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
| Payment basis | Rolling monthly — not annual batch | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
| Council capital obligationRhwymedigaeth gyfalaf y Cyngor | £0£0 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU |
| Council operating liabilityAtebolrwydd gweithredu'r Cyngor | £0£0 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU |
| CSA termTymor CSA | 30 years from Phase Initial CODCOD y Cam Cychwynnol | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura |
§3.4 — Residual Obligations in State BCyflwr B§3.4 — Rhwymedigaethau Gweddilliol yng Nghyflwr B
In State BCyflwr B, Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd retains its Prosiect Gwyrdd commitment for Phase Initial and Phase MediumCanolig periods. Approximately 22,332 tpytpy (~61 TPDTPD) of contracted residual continues to flow to Viridor Waste Management Limited's Cardiff ERF under existing Prosiect Gwyrdd terms, until the contract transitions or expires. Phase Expanded (~2040) absorbs these streams once contractually available. There is no conflict between State BCyflwr B Phase Initial/MediumCanolig and existing Prosiect Gwyrdd obligations.rhwymedigaethau Prosiect Gwyrdd.
§3.5 — Timeline AnchorAngoriing§3.5 — Angori'r Amserlen
| AnchorAngori | Timing (Indicative)Amseru (Arwyddol) |
|---|---|
| Phase Initial CODCOD y Cam Cychwynnol | ~2030–31 (Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura schedule — provisional) |
| First Beneficiation Fee payment | Month 1 post-COD |
| First Circular Royalty™ paymentTaliad Royalty Cylchol CyntafTaliad Circular Royalty™ cyntaf | Month 13 post-COD (~2031–32) |
| Prosiect Gwyrdd contract expirydiweddDiwedd contract Prosiect Gwyrdd | ~2040–41 |
| Phase Expanded CODCOD y Cam Ehangedig | ~2040–42 |
§3.6 — Phase Delta
The Phase DeltaDelta Map illustrates the infrastructure transition between State A (current system) and State BCyflwr B (ACM deployment). State A facilities are shown in steel/grey; the Phase Initial ACM candidate site is shown in Emerald.
Phase DeltaDelta Map — requires Google Maps API key in config.jsMap DeltaDelta Cam — angen allwedd Google Maps API yn config.js
State A — WTE/ERF
State A — Landfill
State A — WWTPs
State BCyflwr B — ACM PriorityBlaenoriaeth 1
State A — Current System
Cardiff ERF — Viridor Waste Management Ltd · Trident Park, Cardiff · Prosiect Gwyrdd contracted route · ~2040 expirydiwedd
Newport Landfill, Docks Way · NCC-operated ContingencyWrth gefn and asbestos-category specialist
5× Newport WWTPs — Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water · Biosolids to land application under Ofwat pressure
State BCyflwr B — With Carbotura
ACM PriorityBlaenoriaeth 1 — ABP Atlantic SiteSafle'r Iwerydd ABP
Port of Newport, South Dock · 74 acres · Phase Initial 100 TPDTPD · Clean growth hub alignment · ~0.3 mi from Newport landfill · Multimodal road/rail/marine access
Port of Newport, South Dock · 74 acres · Phase Initial 100 TPDTPD · Clean growth hub alignment · ~0.3 mi from Newport landfill · Multimodal road/rail/marine access
§4 — Delta
§4.1 — Three DeltaDelta Components§4.1 — Tair Cydran DeltaDelta
The totalcyfanswm delta between State A and State BCyflwr B has three components that must be evaluated separately:
- Gross Cost DisplacementDadleoli Cost Gros — reduction in annual disposal cost: Beneficiation Fee replaces State A costscostau. Per formula: Beneficiation Fee = MAX(FloorLlawr, MIN(Ceiling, FWDC − £5)). Gross displacement ≥ £5/tonne by formula.
- Circular Royalty™ Cash Flow — rolling monthly Royalty received from Month 13. An additional positive cash flow — not a reduction in the Beneficiation Fee. Compounds at +1 pp/year. At steady state, exceeds Beneficiation Fee per tonneFfi TMC fesul tunnellBeneficiation Fee fesul tunnell.
- Residual Obligation — remaining State A disposal costscostau for streams not yet in ACM system (Prosiect Gwyrdd contracted streams during Phase Initial/MediumCanolig). Unchanged from State A until Phase Expanded.
Gross cost displacement and Circular Royalty™ cash flow are quantified separately. Both are independent financial effects of the CSA.
State A vs. State BCyflwr BCyflwr A vs. Cyflwr B — Annual Cost Structure by Phase (Indexed)
State A costscostau escalate via three compounding mechanisms. State BCyflwr B Beneficiation Fee is contractually capped at 2.5%/yr. The gross cost displacement gap widens structurally over 30 years.
Source: State A — Waste Study cost structure (all figures estimated); State BCyflwr B — Proposal EIR Input BlockBloc Mewnbwn yr AEE, Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura parametersParamedrau Safon Carbotura · Indexed to Year 1Blwyddyn 1 FWDC = 100 March 2026Mawrth 2026
§4.1 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table§4.1 — Tabl Cymharol Cam-wrth-Gam
| Parameter | Phase Initial Year 1Blwyddyn 1Cam Cychwynnol Blwyddyn 1 | Phase Initial Year 2Blwyddyn 2+Cam Cychwynnol Blwyddyn 2+ | Phase Expanded Steady StateCyflwr Sefydlog Cam Ehangedig |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACM volume (tpytpy) | ~36,500 | ~36,500 | ~73,000 |
| State A cost for ACM volume | ~FWDC(PI) × 36,500 Est. | Escalating | Escalating — both mechanisms |
| Beneficiation Fee (State BCyflwr B) | T × 36,500 | T × 1.025 × 36,500 | T × (1.025ⁿ) × 73,000 |
| Gross displacement per tonne | ≥ £5/tonne by formula | ≥ £5/tonne + FWDC spread | WideLlydanning — FWDC escalates faster than TMCYn ehangu — mae FWDC yn uwchgyfraddu'n gyflymach na TMC |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 1Blwyddyn 1Circular Royalty™ — Blwyddyn 1 | £0£0 | ||
| Circular Royalty™ — from Month 13Royalty Cylchol — o Fis 13Circular Royalty™ — o Fis 13 | 120% × T × 36,500 building monthly | 148%+ × T × 73,000 at Year 30Blwyddyn 30 | |
| Royalty − Fee per tonne | −T (Beneficiation Fee paid; Royalty $0 (pre-royalty)Ffi a dalwyd; Royalty $0 (cyn-royalty)) | Spread positive and widening | Royalty > Fee — maximum spread |
| Council capital obligationRhwymedigaeth gyfalaf y Cyngor | £0£0 | £0£0 | £0£0 |
§4.3 — Pre-RoyaltyCyn-Royalty PeriodCyfnod Cyn-Royalty Separation (Required)§4.3 — Gwahanu Cyfnod Cyn-Royalty (Gofynnol)
Year 1Blwyddyn 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined in any budget projection, annual accounts note, or financial briefing to elected members.
| Period | Newport PaysMae Casnewydd yn Talu | Newport ReceivesMae Casnewydd yn Derbyn | Royalty − Fee per tonneRoyalty − Ffi fesul tunnell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1Blwyddyn 1Pre-RoyaltyCyn-RoyaltyCOD to Month 12COD i Fis 12 | Beneficiation Fee on ~36,500 tpytpy | £0£0 | Negative — Beneficiation Fee onlyFfi TMC yn UnigBeneficiation Fee yn unig |
| Month 13 — Royalty RampMonth 13 onwardymlaen | Beneficiation Fee (2.5%/yr) | 120% × Month 1 TMC · rolling monthly · building | ImprovingGwella toward positivetuag at bositif |
| Steady State — Year 2Blwyddyn 2+Year 2Blwyddyn 2 onwardymlaen | Beneficiation Fee (compounding) | Circular Royalty™ > Beneficiation Fee per tonneFfi TMC fesul tunnellBeneficiation Fee fesul tunnell | Royalty exceeds Fee per tonne — by contractual designdyluniadtrwy ddyluniad cytundebol (separate transactions) |
| Year 30Blwyddyn 30MaximumUchafswmFull escalationUwchgyfraddu llawnEscalation lawn | TMC × (1.025³⁰) | 148% of current TMC rate | MaximumUchafswm Royalty − Fee spread (separate transactions)bwlch Royalty − Ffi (trafodion ar wahân) |
Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.Mae taliadau Royalty Cylchol yn dechrau 13 mis ar ôl taliadau Ffi TMC cyfatebol ac yn cynyddu i'r llawn-gyfradd ar sail rolio.Mae taliadau'r Circular Royalty™ yn dechrau 13 mis ar ôl taliadau Beneficiation Fee cyfatebol ac yn cynyddu i'r llawn-gyfradd ar sail rolio. This is not an annual switch-on event — each Beneficiation Fee payment generates a corresponding Circular Royalty™ payment 13 months later. At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-tonne basis.Yng nghyflwr sefydlog, cynlluniwyd y Royalty Cylchol i fod yn uwch na'r Ffi TMC ar sail y dunnell.
§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost DisplacementDadleoli Cost Gros (Structural, Indexed)§4.4 — Dadleoli Cost Gros 30 Mlynedd (Strwythurol, Indecs)
| Year | State A Cost Index (FWDC escalating)Indecs Cost Cyflwr A (FWDC yn cynyddu) | Beneficiation Fee Index (2.5%/yr, fixed)Indecs Ffi TMC (2.5%/bl, sefydlog) | Gross Displacement IndexIndecs Dadleoli Gros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1Blwyddyn 1 | 100 | T (≤ FWDC − £5) | ≥ £5/tonne |
| Year 2Blwyddyn 2 | ~103–106 | 102.5 | WideLlydanning |
| Year 5 | ~116–128 | 110.4 | WideLlydanning |
| Year 1Blwyddyn 10 | ~135–160 | 128.0 | WideLlydanning significantlyYn ehangu'n sylweddol |
| Year 2Blwyddyn 20 | ~182–256 | 171.6 | WideLlydan |
| Year 30Blwyddyn 30 | ~246–410 | 230.4 | MaximumUchafswm |
Key Structural FindingCanfyddiad Strwythurol Allweddol
Because the Beneficiation Fee escalator (2.5%/yr) is contractually fixed and State A costscostau escalate via multiple compounding mechanisms (Prosiect Gwyrdd index + landfill tax policy + post-contract market), the gross cost displacement gap widens structurally over time. Newport's relative fiscal advantage under State BCyflwr B grows every year of the 30-year CSA.
§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™ Structure (Indexed, T = Year 1Blwyddyn 1 Beneficiation Fee)§4.5 — Strwythur Royalty Cylchol 30 Mlynedd (Indecs, T = Ffi TMC Blwyddyn 1)
| YearBlwyddyn | Avoided Disposal (indexed)Gwaredu a Osgowyd (indecs) | TMC Rate (indexed)Cyfradd TMC (indecs) | TMC Paid (indexed)TMC a Dalwyd (indecs) | Royalty RateCyfradd Royalty | Royalty Received (indexed)Royalty a Dderbyniwyd (indecs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1Blwyddyn 1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | −100.0 | Pre-royaltyCyn-royalty | |
| Year 2Blwyddyn 2 | 102.5 | 102.5 | −102.5 | 120% | +120.0 |
| Year 5Blwyddyn 5 | 110.4 | 110.4 | −110.4 | 123% | +132.5 |
| Year 10Blwyddyn 10 | 128.0 | 128.0 | −128.0 | 128% | +155.9 |
| Year 20Blwyddyn 20 | 171.6 | 171.6 | −171.6 | 138% | +232.0 |
| Year 30Blwyddyn 30 | 230.4 | 230.4 | −230.4 | 148% | +340.7 |
All values indexed to Year 1Blwyddyn 1 Beneficiation Fee = 100. Absolute £ values require Term Sheet phase verification FWDC confirmation.Pob gwerth wedi'i indecsu i Ffi TMC Blwyddyn 1 = 100. Mae angen cadarnhad FWDC yr Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb ar werthoedd £ absoliwt.
State B Fiscal Position — Three Gross Items, Years 1–20Safle Ariannol Cyflwr B — Tair Eitem Gros, Blynyddoedd 1–20
State B converts disposal cost into Beneficiation Fee plus royalty income. All three items shown gross. Year 1 is cost-only; Year 2 onward royalty income exceeds Beneficiation Fee.Mae Cyflwr B yn trosi cost gwaredu yn ffi gwasanaeth gweithgynhyrchu ac incwm royalty. Dangosir y tair eitem yn ros. Dim ond costau sydd yn Mlwyddyn 1; o Flwyddyn 2 ymlaen mae incwm royalty yn uwch na'r Ffi TMC.
View:Golwg:
Avoided DisposalGwaredu a Osgowyd
Beneficiation Fee PaidFfi TMC a Dalwyd
Circular Royalty™Royalty Cylchol
Source: Carbotura delta model · Planning-basis TMC ~$82/tonne (ESTIMATED) · 36,500 tpy Phase Initial · State B per Proposal EIR Input Block · March 2026Ffynhonnell: Model delta Carbotura · TMC sylfaen cynllunio ~$82/tunnell (AMCANGYFRIFOL) · 36,500 tpy Cam Cychwynnol · Cyflwr B yn ôl Bloc Mewnbwn AEE y Cynnig · Mawrth 2026
§5 — System-Level Impact
§5.1 — Employment DeltaDelta (Regional Effects)§5.1 — DeltaDelta Cyflogaeth (Effeithiau Rhanbarthol)
Required declaration:Datganiad Gofynnol: Employment and economic contribution figures are regional economic effects — not Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd fiscal receipts. They do not appear in the Council's accounts and must not be recorded as such.
| Parameter | STATE A | STATE B Phase Initial | Delta (B vs A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE employment (manufacturing) | 0 | ~35 FTE | +35 FTE |
| Indirect and induced jobs (2.5× multiplier) | 0 | ~88 | +88 |
| TotalCyfanswm employment impact | 0 | ~123 | +123 jobs |
| Annual economic contributionCyfraniad economaidd blynyddol | £0£0 | ~£8–10M/yr | +~£8–10M/yr |
| Phase Expanded employment (200 TPDTPD) | 0 | ~70 FTE direct · ~175 totalcyfanswm | +~175 jobs |
All employment figures derived from Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura performance baseline (400 TPDTPD, scaled to 100 TPDTPD). Subject to independent assessment during Term Sheet phase verification.Mae pob ffigur cyflogaeth wedi'i ddeillio o sylfaen perfformiad safon Carbotura (400 TPDTPD, wedi'i raddfa i 100 TPDTPD). Yn amodol ar asesiad annibynnol yn yr Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb.
§5.2 — Environmental DeltaDelta§5.2 — DeltaDelta Amgylcheddol
Required disclaimer: All State BCyflwr B environmental figures are designdyluniaded-for metrics based on Carbotura's ACM platform at 100 TPDTPD. They are not independently verified operational results for Newport. Subject to confirmation during Term Sheet phase verification.
| Parameter | STATE A | STATE B Phase Initial | Delta (B vs A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO₂e avoidance (per 100 TPDTPD modulemodiwl) | 0 | Designed for ~40,000 tCO₂e/yr | +~40,000 tCO₂e/yr |
| Landfill diversion | 0 | ~36,500 tpytpy | +~36,500 tpytpy/yr |
| Water recovery | 0 | Designed for ~4,000 m³/yr | +~4,000 m³/yr |
| Post-2040 structural environmental position | Open-market exposure — no confirmed low-emission alternative | ACM in operation — manufacturing classification | Structural improvement |
§5.3 — PFAS Structural DeltaDelta§5.3 — DeltaDelta Strwythurol PFAS
PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) represent an emerging regulatory risk in UK municipal feedstock management. Wales and UK regulators are increasingly scrutinising PFAS in biosolids, food packaging residues, and composting/AD outputs. ACM's manufacturing process converts feedstock at the elemental level — manufactured outputs (graphene, graphite, hydrogen, ultrapure water) carry no PFAS liability by designdyluniad. State A's composting, land application, and ERF routes all carry PFAS pass-through risk under tightening regulatory frameworks. The delta between State A and State BCyflwr B on PFAS structural liability is directionally positive under State BCyflwr B.
§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis§5.4 — Dadansoddiad Heb Wrthgefn
If State BCyflwr B is not pursued, State A continues with three structural vulnerabilities that cannot be resolved by any action short of contracting a successor infrastructure arrangement:
- Post-Prosiect Gwyrdd exposure (hard): ~61 TPDTPD of contracted residual feedstock has no confirmed successor destination after ~2040–41. Market rates in a constrained UK EfW environment will be higher than today's contracted rates. Newport currently has no mitigation for this exposure.
- Landfill tax escalation (hard): UK landfill tax trajectory is upward. Newport's own landfill facility is rate-exposed. Any ERF primary route failure triggers £126.15/tonne (2025–26) — a rate that will be higher still by 2040.
- Welsh Water biosolids pressure (structural): Five Newport-area WWTPs generate ~2,500 tpytpy under active Ofwat regulatory pressure. Welsh Water's cost of disposal will increase — and its incentive to supply as ACM manufacturing feedstock grows commensurately.
§6 — Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1 — Risk RegisterCofrestr Risg (DeltaDelta AnalysisDadansoddiad DeltaDelta Frame)Fframwaith)
| Risk | Key DriverPrif Yrrwr | A Exposure | B Exposure | Delta (B vs A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC lower than estimated | Confidential Prosiect Gwyrdd gate fee | No change | Beneficiation Fee adjusts; gross displacement narrows but positive floor preserved | State BCyflwr B still superior by formula |
| FWDC higher than estimated | True ERF cost > £115/tonne | State A higher | Beneficiation Fee ceiling caps State BCyflwr B cost; displacement widens | State BCyflwr B advantage larger |
| Prosiect Gwyrdd extension to 2045–46 | Partnership exercises 5-year option | No change | Phase Expanded deferred; Phases Initial/MediumCanolig unaffected | 5-year deferral on Phase Expanded only |
| Technology underperformance | ACM below 100 TPDTPD designdyluniad | N/A | Proportional reduction; residual directed to State A routes; no penalty on Council | PartialRhannol benefit; no Council financial risk |
| Timeline slippage | Planning or construction delay | No costDim cost | State A disposal costscostau continue during delay; post-2040 buffer compressed | Cost of delay = continued State A costscostau during slip |
| PFAS regulatory tightening | UK/Wales PFAS action on biosolids/composting | Increasing — biosolids and composting exposed | ACM elemental dissociation eliminates PFAS pass-through | Structural advantage State BCyflwr B |
| Newport industrial rent growth | Newport +20% industrial rent (Knight Frank 2025) | N/A | PriorityBlaenoriaeth 1 and 2 land cost risk — borne by Carbotura under BOO | Neutral for Council |
| Commercial separation non-compliance | Slower Welsh business compliance post April 2024 | Commercial stream higher than modelled | Phase Initial commercial stream lower | Manageable — food/garden/biosolids sufficient for Phase Initial |
| Welsh target escalation above 70% | Welsh Government post-2025 target | Fine exposure re-activates | ACM reduces residual volumes — supports compliance | State BCyflwr B structurally supportive |
| Royalty escalator policy change | Renegotiation at 30-year CSA renewal | N/A | First 30 years locked at execution — structural; renewal at Year 30Blwyddyn 30 | Long-term stable; renewable at Year 30Blwyddyn 30 |
§6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%§6.2 — Amrywiadedd Bwyd-stoc ±20%
| Scenario | Phase Initial Volume | Beneficiation Fee Obligation | Gross Displacement | Royalty (Year 2Blwyddyn 2+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | ~36,500 tpytpy | T × 36,500 | ≥ £5 × 36,500 | 120% × T × 36,500 |
| −20% (29,200 tpytpy) | 29,200 tpytpy | T × 29,200 | ≥ £5 × 29,200 | 120% × T × 29,200 |
| +20% (43,800 tpytpy) | 43,800 tpytpy | T × 43,800 | ≥ £5 × 43,800 | 120% × T × 43,800 |
Volume risk is symmetric. The per-tonne structural relationship is unchanged at any volume. Council financial exposure is bounded by actual delivered volume — no minimum volume penalty.
§6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity: Sign-ChangeNewid Threshold§6.3 — Sensitifrwydd FWDC: Trothwy Newid Arwydd
Finding — No Sign-ChangeNewid Threshold ExistsCanfyddiad — Nid Oes Trothwy Newid Arwydd
The per-tonne Royalty − Fee margin is always positive from Year 2Blwyddyn 2 onwardymlaen, regardless of the absolute FWDC level — because the Beneficiation Fee formulaFformiwla Ffi TMCFformiwla Beneficiation Fee includes a floor, and the Circular Royalty™ at Year 2Blwyddyn 2 is 120% of the Beneficiation Fee by contractual definition (separate transactions). Year 1Blwyddyn 1 is always pre-Royalty (Beneficiation Fee only; Royalty $0Ffi TMC yn unig; Royalty $0Beneficiation Fee yn unig; Royalty $0) — this is structural, not a sensitivity. There is no FWDC level at which State BCyflwr B is structurally inferior to State A over a multi-year horizon.
§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity§6.4 — Sensitifrwydd Sgaliwr Royalty
| Scenario | Year 2Blwyddyn 2 Royalty RateCyfradd Royalty | Year 1Blwyddyn 10 Royalty RateCyfradd Royalty | Year 30Blwyddyn 30 Royalty RateCyfradd Royalty | Royalty − Fee per tonneRoyalty − Ffi fesul tunnell Year 30Blwyddyn 30 (indexed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Escalator 0 pp/yr (static) | 120% | 120% | 120% | +~90 |
| Escalator +1 pp/yr (contractual) | 120% | 128% | 148% | +~111 |
| Escalator +2 pp/yr (upside) | 120% | 136% | 168% | +~138 |
At zero escalation, the Royalty still exceeds the Beneficiation Fee every year from Year 2Blwyddyn 2. The +1 pp/yr contractual escalator improves Newport's 30-year position by ~23% over static. The contractual structure is conservatively modelled.
§6.5 — Timeline Slippage Sensitivity§6.5 — Sensitifrwydd Llithro Amserlen
| Delay ScenarioSenario Oedi | Cost of DelayCost Oedi | Post-2040 BufferByffer Ar ôl 2040 |
|---|---|---|
| No delay (Term Sheet phase verification 2026)Dim oedi (Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb 2026) | £0£0 | ~8–9 years~8–9 mlynedd |
| 2-year delay (Term Sheet phase verification 2028)Oedi 2 flynedd (Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb 2028) | State A disposal costscostau on Phase Initial volume during 2-year slipCostau gwaredu Cyflwr A ar gyfaint Cam Cychwynnol yn ystod llithro 2 flynedd | ~7–8 years~7–8 mlynedd |
| 5-year delay (Term Sheet phase verification 2031)Oedi 5 mlynedd (Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb 2031) | State A disposal costscostau during 5-year slipCostau gwaredu Cyflwr A yn ystod llithro 5 mlynedd | ~4–5 years~4–5 mlynedd |
| >8-year delayOedi >8 mlynedd (Term Sheet phase verification 2034)Oedi 8 mlynedd (Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb 2034) | State A disposal costscostau during 8-year slipCostau gwaredu Cyflwr A yn ystod llithro 8 mlynedd | ~1–2 years — critical compression~1–2 flynedd — cywasgu critigol |
| >8-year delay | Phase Expanded infrastructure will not be in place by Prosiect Gwyrdd expirydiweddNi fydd seilwaith y Cam Ehangedig yn ei le erbyn diwedd Prosiect Gwyrdd | Open-market exposure risk — HIGHRisg amlygiad marchnad agored — UCHEL |
§7 — Decision Window
§7.1 — Binding Constraints§7.1 — Cyfyngiadau Rhwymol
Constraint 1 — Prosiect Gwyrdd contract expirydiweddDiwedd contract Prosiect Gwyrdd (~2040–41): A fixed horizon. Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd has no control over this date — it was set by contract in December 2013. Phase Expanded infrastructure must be contracted, planned, and constructed before this date to avoid open-market exposure. Working backward from 2040, Term Sheet phase verification must be authorised no later than approximately 2032–33 for Phase Expanded to be operational by 2040.
Constraint 2 — ACM standard deployment schedule:Cyfyngiad 2 — Amserlen defnyddio safonol ACM: From LOI/MOU execution to Phase Expanded CODCOD y Cam Ehangedig is approximately 10–12 years. This is the technical minimum. Feasibility (9–12 months) + CSA negotiation (3–6 months) + Planning and permitting (12–18 months) + Construction (18–24 months) per phase.
§7.2 — Decision WindowFfenestr Table§7.2 — Tabl Ffenestr Penderfynu
| Action | Latest Date (preserves Phase Expanded pre-2040) | Current StatusStatws |
|---|---|---|
| LOI/MOU execution (recommended) | 2026–27 — maximises 8+ year buffer | Not yet initiated |
| LOI/MOU execution (hard latest) | ~2032–33 | Open — but buffer erodingAgored — ond mae'r byffer yn erydu |
| CSA execution | ~2033–34 (latest for Phase Expanded pre-2040) | Requires Term Sheet completionCwblhau'r Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb |
| Phase Expanded CODCOD y Cam Ehangedig (pre-Prosiect Gwyrdd expirydiwedd) | ~2040 (HARD) | Requires Term Sheet phase verification no later than ~2032–33 |
§7.3 — Irreversibility Mechanism§7.3 — Mecanwaith Anwrthdroadwyedd
Structural Irreversibility — Named InstrumentAnwrthdroadwyedd Strwythurol — Offeryn Wedi'i Enwi
The specific irreversible mechanism is the Prosiect Gwyrdd Joint Committee Agreement (executed December 2013, lead authority Cardiff City Council). Under this agreement, Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd is committed to directing its contracted residual feedstock to Viridor Waste Management Limited's Cardiff ERF through approximately 2040–41, with a five-year extension option. Newport cannot unilaterally exit this commitment early without penalty. This means the window to develop ACM successor infrastructure for the contracted streams is fixed and not extendable. If Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd does not have a Phase Expanded ACM facility under contract by approximately 2038–39, it will face open-market EfW procurement at a time when UK EfW capacity is constrained and gate rates are structurally higher than current contracted rates. The Prosiect Gwyrdd agreement itself creates the decision urgency — not Carbotura.
§7.4 — Optionality Matrix§7.4 — Matrics Opsiynoldeb
| Action | Options Preserved | Options Foreclosed |
|---|---|---|
| Execute the LOI/MOUAwdurdodi Astudiaeth Dichonoldeb (2026) | All phases open; full 8+ year planning buffer; competitive procurement possible | None |
| Defer to 2030Gohirio tan 2030 | Phase Initial/MediumCanolig still feasible; Phase Expanded compressedCam Cychwynnol/Canolig yn dal yn ymarferol; Cam Ehangedig wedi'i gywasgu | Post-2040 buffer shrinks to ~4 years; Phase Expanded at riskMae byffer ar ôl 2040 yn crebachu i ~4 mlynedd; Cam Ehangedig mewn perygl |
| Defer to 2033Gohirio tan 2033 | Phase Initial only feasible pre-2040Dim ond Cam Cychwynnol sy'n ymarferol cyn 2040 | Open-market exposure on ~61 TPDTPD during gap between contract expirydiwedd and Phase Expanded CODCOD y Cam Ehangedig |
| Take no actionPeidio â gweithredu | Prosiect Gwyrdd continues to ~2040–41 | Post-2040 destination unplanned; disposal cost escalation unmitigated; no Circular Royalty™ incomeCyrchfan ar ôl 2040 heb ei gynllunio; uwchgyfraddu cost gwaredu heb liniaru; dim incwm Royalty Cylchol |
§8 — Effects Summary
No new figures in this section. All values trace to preceding sections.
§8.1 — Fiscal Flows (Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd Accounts — CIPFA)§8.1 — Llifau Ariannol (Cyfrifon Cyngor Dinas Casnewydd — CIPFA)
| Period | Beneficiation Fee Obligation | Circular Royalty™ Receipt | Royalty − Fee per tonne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1Blwyddyn 1 (pre-royalty) | T × ~36,500 tpytpy | £0£0 | Negative — Beneficiation Fee onlyFfi TMC yn UnigBeneficiation Fee yn unig |
| Year 2Blwyddyn 2 onwardymlaen (ramp) | T × 1.025 × ~36,500 | 1.20T × 36,500 building monthly from Month 13 | Spread positive and widening (separate transactions)Bwlch yn bositif ac yn lledu (trafodion ar wahân) |
| Steady state (Year 1Blwyddyn 10+) | T × (1.025¹⁰) × ~36,500 | 1.28T × ~36,500 (Year 1Blwyddyn 10) | Royalty exceeds Fee — Royalty > Fee per tonneRoyalty > Ffi fesul tunnell |
| Phase Expanded Year 30Blwyddyn 30 | T × (1.025³⁰) × ~73,000 | 1.48T × ~73,000 | MaximumUchafswm Royalty − Fee spread (separate transactions)bwlch Royalty − Ffi (trafodion ar wahân) |
Absolute £ values require Term Sheet phase verification FWDC confirmation. Under CIPFA: Beneficiation Fee obligations = revenue account service costscostau; Circular Royalty™ receipts = revenue income, receivable from Month 13; capital obligation = nil (BOO structure).
§8.2 — Regional Economic Effects§8.2 — Effeithiau Economaidd Rhanbarthol
Required disclaimer: The following effects are regional economic impacts. They are not Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd fiscal receipts and must not be recorded as such in the Council's accounts.
| Effect | STATE A | STATE B | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct manufacturing FTE (Phase Initial) | 0 | ~35 | +35 |
| TotalCyfanswm employment (Phase Initial) | 0 | ~123 | +123 jobs |
| Annual economic contributionCyfraniad economaidd blynyddol | £0£0 | ~£8–10M/yr | +~£8–10M/yr |
| TotalCyfanswm employment (Phase Expanded) | 0 | ~175 | +175 jobs |
§8.3 — Environmental Effects§8.3 — Effeithiau Amgylcheddol
| Effect | STATE A | STATE B | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO₂e avoidance (Phase Initial) | 0 | Designed for ~40,000 tCO₂e/yr | +~40,000 tCO₂e/yr |
| Landfill diversion | 0 | ~36,500 tpytpy | +~36,500 tpytpy |
| Post-2040 environmental position | Unplanned / open market | ACM in operation | Structural improvement |
§8.4 — Structural Effects§8.4 — Effeithiau Strwythurol
| Effect | STATE A | STATE B | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-Prosiect Gwyrdd feedstock destination | None confirmed | Phase Expanded CSA in place | Structural gap eliminatedBwlch strwythurol wedi'i ddileu |
| Disposal cost ceiling | None — open-ended escalation | Beneficiation Fee ceiling contractually fixed | Cost ceiling introduced |
| Council capital liability | £0£0 | £0£0 | EqualCyfartal |
| Welsh Water biosolids route stability | Land application under pressure | ACM service agreement available | Improved |
§8.5 — Unresolved Data GapsBylchau Data Heb eu Datrys
| Data Gap | Impact on DeltaDelta AnalysisDadansoddiad DeltaDelta | Resolution PathwayLlwybr Datrys |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee base per tonne | All absolute £ values for obligations and receipts cannot be calculated | Term Sheet phase verification FWDC verification under NDA |
| Prosiect Gwyrdd gate fee (Viridor Cardiff ERF, Newport's share) | State A ERF cost ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL — widens or narrows gross displacement | FOI toRhCAG i Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd or Cardiff as lead authority; or direct disclosure under Term Sheet phase verification NDA |
| Newport-specific WasteDataFlow breakdown | Feedstock volumes ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL — affects volume-weighted projections | Request from Natural Resources Wales / Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd waste finance team |
| Biosolids disposal cost (Welsh Water) | Biosolids stream cost ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL | Welsh Water direct engagement during Term Sheet phase verification |
| Food and garden waste composting/AD contract costscostau | StreamFfrwd costscostau ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL | Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd waste finance team |
Executive ImplicationsGoblygiadau Gweithredol
- The structural case for State BCyflwr B is complete and does not depend on the FWDC being verified. The Circular Royalty™ formula guarantees Newport's per-tonne fiscal position improves from Year 2Blwyddyn 2 regardless of the absolute Beneficiation Fee level — the Royalty is 120% of the Beneficiation Fee by contractual definition. Term Sheet phase verification establishes the scale, not whether the benefit exists.
- Newport's most material risk is the post-2040 unplanned position, not disposal cost. The Prosiect Gwyrdd contract creates a hard deadline Newport did not choose. ~61 TPDTPD of contracted residual loses its disposal infrastructure in approximately 2040–41. This is the most material structural risk on Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd's waste management balance sheet and is not addressable by any action short of contracting a successor infrastructure arrangement.
- Each year of delay on Term Sheet phase verification compresses the post-2040 planning buffer by one year and increases exposure to open-market EfW rates. UK EfW capacity is supply-constrained and new facility planning is difficult. The market Newport would face in 2041 without a successor arrangement is structurally more expensive than today's market. The cost of delay is compounding and non-recoverable.
- Term Sheet phase verification is the lowest-cost, highest-optionality action available. It confirms the numbers, does not commit the Council to the CSA, and preserves every subsequent option. Not authorising it is the only action that forecloses options.
Appendix A — Sources and Methodology
Sources
| Source | RoleRôl in DeltaDelta AnalysisDadansoddiad DeltaDelta |
|---|---|
| Welsh Government — Local Authority Municipal Waste Management: April 2024 to March 2025 (January 2026) | State A recycling rate; Newport target compliance status |
| WRAP Wales — Welsh Government Collections Blueprint 2025 (Newport case studies) | State A kerbside residual tonnage (14,832 tpytpy); waste composition; 25% reduction |
| NRW Environmental Permit EPR/LP3030XA (Viridor Waste Management Limited) | State A primary ERF operator verification |
| letsrecycle.com — Viridor Prosiect Gwyrdd contract (December 2013) | State A contract term, partners, operational date |
| Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd — Landfill Site Clarification (August 2018) | State A primary disposal route confirmation |
| Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd — Budget and Finance page | Population and household base data |
| ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2024 (gov.wales, 2025) | Newport population 167,899; growth rate +1.7% |
| Welsh Water Communities website 2025 | State A biosolids operator; 5 Newport WWTPs |
| Ofwat — Enforcement Investigation: Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water (July 2024) | State A biosolids regulatory pressure |
| UK Treasury — Spring Budget 2025 Landfill Tax | State A landfill tax £126.15/tonne (2025–26) |
| Cardiff Capital Region — ABP Newport investment opportunity; ABP October 2025 press release | State BCyflwr B PriorityBlaenoriaeth 1 siteSafle Blaenoriaeth 1: ABP Atlantic, 74 acres |
| Knight Frank Wales Logistics & Industrial Report, January 2026 | Newport industrial market context; +20% rental growth |
| Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura performance baseline (400 TPDTPD, scaled) | State BCyflwr B employment, economic impact, carbon metrics |
| Carbotura Circular Supply AgreementCytundeb Cyflenwi Cylchol standard parameters | State BCyflwr B Beneficiation Fee formulaFformiwla Ffi TMCFformiwla Beneficiation Fee, Circular Royalty™ formula, CSA termTymor CSA |
Methodology NotesNodiadau Methodoleg
FWDC derivation: State A FWDC estimated from publicly available UK municipal EfW gate fee benchmarks, composting/AD contractor ranges, land application costscostau, and landfill tax. Term Sheet phase verification will verify from Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd's contracted data under NDA.
Beneficiation Fee formulaFformiwla Ffi TMCFformiwla Beneficiation Fee: MAX(FloorLlawr, MIN(Ceiling, FWDC − £5)). FloorLlawr and Ceiling are Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura parametersParamedrau Safon Carbotura. Formula ensures Beneficiation Fee ≤ FWDC − £5 at any FWDC above the floor.
Phase sizing: Phase Initial = 100 TPDTPD (ceil(100/100) = 1 modulemodiwl). Phase Expanded = 200 TPDTPD (ceil(200/100) = 2 modulemodiwls). Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura modulemodiwl architecture.
Royalty formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Base: 120% Year 1Blwyddyn 1 Beneficiation Fee. Escalator: +1 pp/year. Lag: 13 months. Rolling monthly basis.
Employment: 35 direct FTE per 100 TPDTPD modulemodiwl. 2.5× multiplier for indirect and induced. Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura performance baseline. Subject to independent assessment during Term Sheet phase verification.
Accounting standard: CIPFA. Beneficiation Fee obligations: revenue account service costscostau. Circular Royalty™ receipts: revenue income, receivable from Month 13. Capital obligation: nil under BOO structure.
Appendix B — Glossary Additions
Supplements the authoritative glossary in the Waste Study. Terms defined there are not repeated.Ategu'r geirfa awdurdodol yn yr Astudiaeth Gwastraff. Nid yw termau a ddiffinnir yno yn cael eu hailadrodd.
CIPFA
Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy. The accounting standard governing financial reporting for Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd. Beneficiation Fee obligations are revenue account service costscostau; Circular Royalty™ receipts are revenue income; capital obligation is nil under BOO structure.
DeltaDelta Model
The analytical framework of this Economic Impact ReportAdroddiad Effaith Economaidd. Measures the financial, employment, and environmental difference between State A (current system, Waste Study) and State BCyflwr B (ACM deployment, Proposal EIR Input BlockBloc Mewnbwn yr AEE).
Gross Cost DisplacementDadleoli Cost Gros
The annual reduction in Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd's manufacturing feedstock disposal costscostau resulting from Beneficiation Fee replacing State A disposal costscostau. Gross cost displacement per tonne = FWDC − Beneficiation Fee (minimum £5/tonne by formula, before any Royalty consideration).
Per-Tonne Fiscal FlowsLlifau Ariannol Fesul Tunnell
Beneficiation Fee paid and Circular Royalty™ received are reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle (MR §4.8) — never combined or netted. Year 1: Fee paid; Royalty $0 (pre-Royalty). Year 2 onward: per-tonne Royalty exceeds per-tonne Fee; spread widens at steady state. Reported under CIPFA accounting standards.
Pre-RoyaltyCyn-Royalty PeriodCyfnod Cyn-Royalty
Months 1–12 after Phase Initial CODCOD y Cam Cychwynnol. Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd pays the Beneficiation Fee on delivered volume; receives £0£0 Circular Royalty™. Twelve months in duration. Must be recognised in Year 1Blwyddyn 1 budget planning.
Royalty Ramp PeriodCyfnod Ramp Royalty
Month 13 onwardymlaen after Phase Initial CODCOD y Cam Cychwynnol. Rolling monthly Circular Royalty™ payments begin at 120% of the corresponding Month 1 Beneficiation Fee and build as the royalty rate escalates monthly.
Steady-State PeriodCyfnod Cyflwr Sefydlog
Approximately Year 2Blwyddyn 2 onwardymlaen. The Circular Royalty™ per tonne structurally exceeds the Beneficiation Fee per tonneFfi TMC fesul tunnellBeneficiation Fee fesul tunnell — reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle. The per-tonne Royalty − Fee margin is positive by contractual designdyluniadtrwy ddyluniad cytundebol.
State A
Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd's current manufacturing feedstock management system as defined by the Waste Study: Prosiect Gwyrdd/Viridor ERF for contracted residual; composting/AD for food and garden waste; land application for biosolids; Newport City CouncilCyngor Dinas Casnewydd landfillTirlenwi Cyngor Dinas Casnewydd for specialist and contingency streams.
State BCyflwr B
The ACM deployment condition as defined by the Proposal: 100 TPDTPD Phase Initial; Circular Supply AgreementCytundeb Cyflenwi Cylchol with Carbotura; Beneficiation Fee; Circular Royalty™ from Month 13; zero Council capex; Phase Expanded ~2040 absorbing contracted streams post-Prosiect Gwyrdd transition.
Appendix C — Evidence Chain
| FigureFfigur | ValueGwerth | Public SourceFfynhonnell Gyhoeddus | TypeMath | ConfidenceHyder |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerbside residual 14,832 tpytpy | 14,832 | WRAP Wales 2025 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| Newport recycling rate ≥70% (2024–25) | ≥70% | Welsh Government January 2026 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| Prosiect Gwyrdd 25-year term, ~2040–41 expirydiwedd | 25 years | letsrecycle.com December 2013 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| Viridor as Cardiff ERF operator | Viridor Waste Management Limited | NRW Permit EPR/LP3030XA | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| Landfill tax £126.15/tonne (2025–26) | £126.15/tonne | UK Treasury Spring Budget 2025 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| Phase Initial 100 TPDTPD — 1 modulemodiwl | 100 TPDTPD | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura (ceil(100/100)=1) | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura | High |
| Phase Expanded 200 TPDTPD — 2 modulemodiwls | 200 TPDTPD | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura (ceil(200/100)=2) | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura | High |
| Direct FTE ~35 per 100 TPDTPD | ~35 FTE | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura performance baseline | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura | MediumCanolig |
| Carbon avoidance ~40,000 tCO₂e/yr | ~40,000 | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura platform | Carbotura standardSafon Carbotura | MediumCanolig |
| ABP Atlantic SiteSafle'r Iwerydd ABP 74 acres | 74 acres | Cardiff Capital Region; ABP October 2025 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |
| ERF disposal cost £95–115/tonne | £95–115 | UK municipal EfW benchmark — Prosiect Gwyrdd commercially confidential | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL | Low |
| FWDC Phase Initial ~£55–80/tonne | £55–80 | Blended benchmark, non-contracted streams | ESTIMATEDAMCANGYFRIFOL | Low |
| Newport population +1.7%/yr | +1.7% | ONS mid-2024, gov.wales 2025 | VERIFIEDWEDI'I DDILYSU | High |