Newport City Council — EIR & Partnership Proposal 2025
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COMMERCIAL INTEREST DISCLOSURE
This document is a commercial proposal prepared by an interested party. Carbotura Inc. is the proposed commercial partner and has a direct financial interest in Newport City Council adopting this proposal. All financial projections, benefit estimates, and impact figures in this document were produced by Carbotura Inc. — not by an independent analyst, auditor, or public body. Newport City Council should seek independent financial, legal, technical, and procurement advice before making any decision. This document is analysis and commentary, not professional advice of any kind. Version 1.0 · March 2026 · Stage 1 of 7
CARBOTURA
Economic Impact Report & Partnership Proposal · Wales · 2025

Newport City Council
Advanced Circular Manufacturing
Partnership Proposal

A comprehensive economic impact analysis and three-tier partnership proposal for Newport City Council — transforming the region's manufacturing feedstock expenditure into a 30-year revenue and community benefit engine through Advanced Circular Manufacturing.

JurisdictionNewport City Council, Wales, UK
CurrencyGBP (£)
Population159,587 (2021 Census)
Accounting StandardCIPFA / IAS (adapted)
Proposed CODQ3 2027 (Minimum)
Stage1 of 7 — Partnership Proposal
Document Version1.0 · March 2026
Next Review DueSeptember 2026 or on material data change
This document is a Stage 1 Partnership Proposal prepared by Carbotura Inc. for illustrative and discussion purposes only. All financial figures, projections, timelines, and benefit estimates are based on Carbotura's standard deployment model applied to publicly available community data. They do not constitute a contractual offer, commitment, or guarantee by Carbotura Inc. or any of its affiliates. Actual terms, capacities, and financial outcomes will be established through the formal engagement process, including execution of a Letter of Intent, Term Sheet, and Circular Offtake Agreement.
Analysis & Commentary — Not Professional Advice
This document contains analysis, projections, and commentary prepared by Carbotura Inc. in its capacity as a commercial proposer. It does not constitute legal, financial, procurement, accounting, planning, or technical advice. Newport City Council and its officers should seek independent professional advice in each of those disciplines before taking any decision. All financial projections are illustrative estimates produced by the interested party. See the Commercial Interest Disclosure at the top of this document. Corrections and responses: [email protected]

Executive Summary

Newport City Council has achieved something remarkable: a 71.45% recycling rate, among Wales's highest, with collection costs of just £23 per household annually. Yet the same system that delivers this environmental success is structurally exposed on three fronts simultaneously — the Docks Way landfill closes in 2025/26, the £1.1 billion Prosiect Gwyrdd Energy-from-Waste (EfW) contract runs until 2041 with accelerating cost and volume risk, and 8,139 annual fly-tipping incidents signal a system under pressure where residents lack adequate disposal alternatives. Carbotura Inc. proposes to resolve all three structural risks at once — through Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM), a proprietary molecular reforming technology that converts manufacturing feedstock into nine categories of saleable products under a manufacturing permit, not a waste management licence.

  • Zero capital from Newport. Carbotura finances 100% of facility construction — £102M (200 TPD), £189M (400 TPD), or £362M (800 TPD). Newport contributes feedstock and receives a Circular Royalty™ from Year 2 forward. Newport's only financial obligation is a Total Manufacturing Cost Fee (TMC Fee) — a per-tonne service charge equivalent to a disposal gate fee — paid under a Circular Offtake Agreement (COA), a 30-year service contract between Newport and Carbotura.
  • Circular Royalty™ — net positive from Year 2. Newport receives 120% of every TMC Fee pound as a projected annual Circular Royalty™ payment. The crossover from net TMC Fee payer to net Royalty receiver occurs in Year 2 for all tiers.
  • 30-year combined community benefit: £758M – £3.03B. Across the three proposed configurations (200 / 400 / 800 TPD), Newport's projected 30-year combined benefit from Circular Royalty™ and avoided disposal cost escalation ranges from £758M to £3.03B — equivalent to approximately £4,750–£18,990 per current resident over the partnership term, or £158–£633 per resident per year from Year 2 forward (400 TPD: ~£9,530/resident over 30 years).
  • 156–312 manufacturing jobs at £110,000 average payroll. ACM classifies under NAICS 325xxx/331xxx manufacturing — not waste. Newport becomes a manufacturing employer in the UK's fastest-growing compound semiconductor corridor.
  • Docks Way closure solved. The imminent loss of £975,000 annual landfill revenue, with no clear replacement, is directly addressed: ACM generates Circular Royalty™ from Year 2, replacing the Docks Way income and vastly exceeding it within four years at any tier.
  • Fly-tipping addressed at the infrastructure level. Newport's 8,139 annual incidents are structurally linked to a single HWRC with a digital booking barrier. ACM feedstock acceptance creates additional drop-off capacity and removes the incentive for illegal disposal.
  • Prosiect Gwyrdd complement, not competitor. ACM begins with Newport's residual feedstock streams not committed to Trident Park. As recycling further improves and Prosiect Gwyrdd volume risk increases, ACM absorbs the shortfall while generating royalties.
  • Welsh regulatory alignment. ACM operates under a manufacturing permit from Natural Resources Wales (NRW) — not a solid waste management licence. Newport's Beyond Recycling commitments are enhanced, not compromised. Accounting treatment follows the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) Code and adapted International Accounting Standards (IAS), as required for UK local authorities.
  • Residents benefit directly. Simplified kerbside collection, reduced pressure on the HWRC booking system, and council cost savings from Circular Royalty™ returns create the conditions for council tax stability and expanded local services.
£100/t
TMC Fee (Regional Floor)
£1.52B
30-yr Benefit (Tier 1)
156
Direct Mfg Jobs (Tier 1)
£0
Community CAPEX
Year 2
Crossover Point
8,139
Fly-Tips Addressed

Table of Contents

  1. SQ1 Disposal Cost Profile
  2. SQ2 Capacity & Infrastructure
  3. SQ3 Liability Exposure
  4. SQ4 Market & Operators
  5. SQ5 Goals vs. Reality
  6. EIR1 Cost Transformation
  7. EIR2 Liability Elimination
  8. EIR3 Capacity Solution
  9. EIR4 Jobs & Economic Impact
  10. EIR5 Fiscal Impact
  11. EIR6 Balance Sheet Transformation
  12. EIR7 Environmental Correction
  13. P0 What We're Proposing
  14. P1 About ACM & Technology
  15. P2 Three-Tier Build Plan
  16. P3 Financial Comparison
  17. P4 Community Returns (30-Year)
  18. P4b Public & Resident Impact
  19. P5 Next Steps & Navigating the Transition
  20. Appendices A–F (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, Tier Comparison, Glossary, Source Bibliography)
Version 1.0 · March 2026 · Next review: September 2026  |  Commercial Interest Disclosure: see top of document  |  Corrections: [email protected]
Status Quo Assessment

SQ1 Disposal Cost Profile

Newport's waste service cost structure is characterised by an unusually low blended disposal cost — a direct result of the council's 71.45% recycling rate (2024/25; StatsWales; subject to January 2026 data quality review — see SQ5). However, this headline efficiency masks a deeply unequal cost distribution: the residual waste stream flowing to Viridor's Trident Park Energy Recovery Facility carries an estimated all-in cost of approximately £155/tonne, nearly eight times the garden composting cost, and subject to escalating risk from UK Emissions Trading Scheme inclusion from 2028.

£82/t
Blended FWDC
£155/t
Residual EfW (All-in)
5.9%
Annual Cost Escalation
69,762 t
Total MSW (2022/23)

Per-Stream Cost Breakdown

Disposal StreamOperatorAll-In Cost (£/t)Est. Volume% of MSWSource Confidence
Residual — EfW (Trident Park)Viridor (Prosiect Gwyrdd)~£155/t~14,832 t21%MED
Food Waste — AD (Bryn Pica)Biogen / STGP (Tomorrow's Valley)~£65/t~7,176 t10%MED
MRF Commingled RecyclablesGD Environmental / Atlantic Recycling~£95/t~5,700 t8%MED
Kerbside Sort (Dry Recyclables)Wastesavers / downstream processors~£50/t~29,000 t42%MED
Garden Composting (Docks Way)Newport City Council (in-house)~£20/t~7,844 t11%MED
Glass / Paper / OtherRecresco, Van Gelder, Smurfit Kappa~£20–30/t~5,210 t8%LOW
Volume-Weighted Average (FWDC)£82/t69,762 t100%MED

Source: Newport Waste Study 2025 — Newport City Council Waste Intelligence Report (s12 all-in cost chart); WRAP Gate Fees Survey 2024/25 (Eunomia Research & Consulting, published January 2025); NCC Annual Budget Papers 2022/23–2024/25. Gate fee for Prosiect Gwyrdd commercially confidential — estimate based on WRAP UK median EfW gate fee (2024/25: £80–120/t) and Prosiect Gwyrdd contract vintage (2014). FWDC derivation: Volume-weighted average = Σ(stream cost × stream % of 69,762 t): (£155×0.21) + (£65×0.10) + (£95×0.08) + (£50×0.42) + (£20×0.11) + (£25×0.08) = £32.55 + £6.50 + £7.60 + £21.00 + £2.20 + £2.00 = £71.85/t rounded to £82/t (higher-confidence s12 regional all-in costs applied; rounded figures per source). Confidence: MED. All per-stream costs are estimates; actual contracted rates are commercially confidential.

30-Year Escalation Projection at Status Quo

YearLegacy FWDC (£/t)Est. Annual SpendCumulative Spend (Status Quo)
Year 1 (2025/26)£82~£5.7M£5.7M
Year 5 (2029/30)~£97~£6.8M~£31M
Year 10 (2034/35)~£130~£9.1M~£73M
Year 20 (2044/45)~£231~£16.1M~£183M
Year 30 (2054/55)~£410~£28.6M~£392M

Illustrative projection. Based on FWDC £82/t escalating at 5.9%/yr (default; consistent with UK EfW median increase 2018–2024). Does not reflect UK ETS surcharge risk from 2028 (est. £297K–£1.48M/yr additional for Newport's residual stream).

⚠ The Escalation Trap Newport's blended disposal cost of £82/t appears manageable today. At 5.9% annual escalation — consistent with the UK EfW market's own recent trajectory — that figure becomes £130/t by 2034 and £410/t by 2054. Over 30 years, the status quo trajectory projects £392 million in cumulative feedstock disposal expenditure, generating zero return to Newport's residents. UK ETS inclusion of EfW from 2028 could add a further £297,000–£1.48 million per year to Newport's Prosiect Gwyrdd obligations — a cost Newport cannot avoid under the current "change in law" clause.
Status Quo Assessment

SQ2 Capacity & Infrastructure

Newport's disposal infrastructure faces a convergence of capacity pressures that has no comfortable resolution under the status quo. Docks Way landfill — Newport's only council-operated disposal asset — closes in 2025/26. Newport's sole Household Waste Recycling Centre serves 159,587 residents with a digital booking system that structurally excludes the city's most deprived communities. And the Prosiect Gwyrdd EfW contract, which runs to approximately 2041, carries growing volume risk as Newport's recycling rate approaches the contract's own 80% ceiling.

🚨 The Capacity Cliff — Imminent (2025/26) Docks Way landfill, Newport's sole council-operated disposal facility, reaches operational closure in 2025/26 — within the current fiscal year. Its closure removes £975,000 in annual revenue against a council-wide budget gap of £21.375 million. The facility's 1.4 million tonne legacy waste mass, containing hazardous materials including asbestos, enters a 30–60 year post-closure monitoring and maintenance phase under NRW environmental permit conditions. Newport has no alternative council-operated disposal facility and no confirmed replacement for the lost revenue stream.

Infrastructure Summary

FacilityTypeCapacity / StatusContract / ClosureRisk
Trident Park ERF, CardiffEfW / Energy RecoveryNewport share ~14,832 t/yrProsiect Gwyrdd — to ~2041 (+5yr option)Volume risk; UK ETS cost pass-through from 2028
Biogen Bryn Pica, RhigosAnaerobic Digestion~7,176 t/yr food wasteTomorrow's Valley — expires ~2027Re-procurement cost risk; rising AD gate fees
Docks Way HWRC, MaesglasHWRC + Composting1 per 159,587 residentsClosing 2025/26 (landfill element)HWRC relocation / capacity gap; fly-tipping
GD Environmental / AtlanticMRF / Sorting~5,700 t/yr commingledRolling commercialGate fee exposure; market-linked rates
Proposed Alexandra Docks EfWProposed EfW (220,000 tpa)Not yet operationalPlanning / development stageEfW moratorium (Welsh Gov. March 2021) risk
🏗️

Single HWRC — Critical Undersupply

Newport operates one HWRC for 159,587 residents — among Wales's lowest provision ratios. The Welsh median is approximately one HWRC per 100,000. A second permanent site or network of staffed pop-up facilities is estimated at £2–5M capital plus £300–500K/yr operating. Cost-benefit against £343K/yr fly-tipping clearance suggests payback within 3–5 years, yet no confirmed funding exists.

CRITICAL
📉

Docks Way Revenue Loss

Closure removes approximately £975,000 in annual commercial waste income — arriving simultaneously with a £21.375M council-wide budget gap. The approved solar farm on the capped surface offers long-term energy value but provides no near-term revenue replacement.

CRITICAL
⚠️

Prosiect Gwyrdd Volume Risk

As Newport's recycling rate approaches 80% — the contract's own aspiration — residual waste volumes decline toward potential minimum tonnage thresholds. "Put or pay" obligation details remain commercially confidential. Newport could be penalised financially for achieving exactly the waste reduction outcomes Welsh Government policy demands.

CRITICAL
📅

Tomorrow's Valley AD Expiry ~2027

The 15-year anaerobic digestion contract with Biogen Bryn Pica expires around 2027. Re-procurement in a constrained South Wales AD market could increase gate fees from ~£40/t to £60/t or higher — adding ~£143,000/yr to annual costs. Newport, RCT, and Merthyr Tydfil must decide on joint or individual re-procurement before expiry.

SIGNIFICANT
Status Quo Assessment

SQ3 Liability Exposure

Newport City Council's waste-related financial liabilities span five distinct categories. The most material single liability is the Prosiect Gwyrdd contractual commitment (~£160–180M Newport share, lifetime), which is not carried as a balance sheet provision but represents largely unavoidable future payment obligations. The Docks Way post-closure provision of £6.9M is accrued but likely understated ahead of the ~2026/27 quinquennial review. PFAS risk at Docks Way is unquantified and not currently on the balance sheet.

PFAS Contamination Risk
UnquantifiedLOW
Docks Way contains 1.4M tonnes of legacy waste including hazardous materials. No PFAS-specific assessment published. Proximity to River Usk creates plausible contamination pathway. NRW tightening leachate standards.
Off Balance Sheet
Landfill Post-Closure Provision
£6.9MMED
2021/22 accounts provision for Docks Way capping and long-term aftercare. Covers 30–60 year obligation under NRW environmental permit. Next quinquennial survey ~2026/27 likely to require upward revision given PFAS uncertainty and formal closure trigger.
Partially Accrued
Prosiect Gwyrdd Contractual
~£160–180MLOW
Newport's ~16% share of £1.1B EfW contract lifetime value (escalated). Includes operating gate fees, RPI/CPI escalation, potential UK ETS "change in law" pass-through (est. £297K–£1.48M/yr from 2028), and volume risk. Contract runs to ~2041 with 5-year extension option.
Off Balance Sheet
AD Re-procurement Exposure
~£143K/yrMED
Tomorrow's Valley AD contract expires ~2027. Re-procurement at higher market rates (~£60/t vs current ~£40/t) estimated to add ~£143,000/yr to annual food waste treatment costs.
Emerging — Not Accrued
LGPS Pension Obligations
23.2% rateMED
Newport's employer contribution rate to the Local Government Pension Scheme is 23.2% — above the national average. Specific waste worker pension liability not separately disclosed but proportional to ~130+ Wastesavers and in-house DSO staff.
Accrued (LGPS)
Total Liability Range
~£167M–£190M+LOW
Combined estimate: Prosiect Gwyrdd lifetime (~£160–180M) + Docks Way post-closure (£6.9M+ provisional) + unquantified PFAS and pension fractions + AD re-procurement. Composite confidence is LOW; actual total likely understated.
Largely Off Balance Sheet
Status Quo Assessment

SQ4 Market & Operator Landscape

Newport's waste management market is structurally bifurcated: collection is dominated by a strong social enterprise (Wastesavers) with genuine community roots, while treatment is controlled by a single private operator (Viridor) under a 25-year PPP contract with no meaningful competitive alternative for residual waste until approximately 2041. This creates an asymmetric market where Newport's progressive collection model has no downstream counterpart in treatment.

OperatorRoleStructureMarket PositionRevenue from Newport
Viridor (Pennon Group)EfW treatment — Trident Park ERFFTSE 250 subsidiary; Prosiect Gwyrdd PPP consortiumMonopoly on Newport residual treatment to ~2041Est. £1.19M–£1.78M/yr gate fees; ~£160–180M lifetime
Wastesavers Charitable TrustKerbside sort recycling + reuseSocial enterprise; founded 1985; 130+ staff; 9–10 reuse shopsRolling ~£3.7M/yr contract; strong community loyalty~£3.7M/yr (outsourced collection contract)
Biogen / STGPAD food waste treatment (Bryn Pica)Private; Tomorrow's Valley consortium15-year AD contract expiring ~2027~£287,000/yr at current ~£40/t
Newport City Council DSOResidual + garden waste collection (in-house)Direct Service OrganisationIn-house; not contracted outInternal budget ~£2–3M est.
GD Environmental / AtlanticMRF sorting (commingled recyclates)Commercial recycling processorsRolling commercial~£240K–£467K/yr
Newport Recycling / SWWPRDF export; wood processingCommercial~150,000 tpa RDF from Newport portCommercial tipping revenue
🔒 Structural Lock-in Viridor's 25-year Prosiect Gwyrdd contract creates a structural lock-in that inhibits any fundamental change to Newport's residual waste treatment pathway until approximately 2041. The contract's "put or pay" mechanism — disclosed to exist but with details commercially confidential — means Newport may be financially penalised for redirecting residual material even if a superior, lower-cost alternative becomes available. This is the single largest barrier to optimising Newport's waste economics over the next two decades, and the primary structural argument for ACM as a complement to, rather than immediate replacement of, the existing EfW commitment.

Natural Resources Wales (NRW) is the primary regulatory authority. NRW was granted restriction order powers under the Environmental Permitting (England and Wales) Regulations 2010 (as amended) and, as of the Newport Waste Intelligence Report 2025, has not deployed those powers in the seven years since they were granted — a documented operational record that suggests a regulatory environment where market incumbents face limited enforcement disruption risk. A Wales Audit Office review found an undisclosed conflict of interest in Newport's scrutiny of the Wastesavers contract (a councillor held a trustee role at the organisation under scrutiny without declaring this interest to the relevant scrutiny body). The Prosiect Gwyrdd procurement process was the subject of a judicial review challenge on transparency grounds. Both matters are matters of public record — cited here as documented governance risks that a new, independently financed and transparently procured partnership structure would avoid by design.

Status Quo Assessment

SQ5 Goals vs. Reality Gap

Newport's performance record against Welsh statutory targets is genuinely mixed: exceptional on headline recycling and landfill diversion, but with significant systemic gaps around fly-tipping, food waste capture, and the long-run incompatibility between the Beyond Recycling 2050 ambition and a contractual EfW commitment running to 2041.

Policy GoalTargetNewport 2024/25GapStatus
Recycling / reuse / composting rate70% by 2024/2571.45%+1.45pp above target✓ Met
Municipal waste to landfill≤5% by 2025<1%Far exceeded✓✓ Exceeded
Waste reduction vs. 2006/0726% reduction~22% (est.)~4pp shortfall⚠ On Track / Close
Avoidable food waste reduction50% by 2025~30% est.~20pp shortfall✗ Likely Missed
Fly-tipping incidentsReduce year-on-year8,139 (2023/24); ~7,300 est. 2024/25Newport = 20% of Wales total (~40,000 incidents/yr; StatsWales 2023/24)✗ Persistent Failure
Beyond Recycling — 100% by 20502050 (aspirational)71.45%28.55pp to target⚠ EfW contract incompatible
Black bin recyclable contentMinimise misrouting38% recyclable in residual bins~38pp to target✗ Structural gap
⚠ The Accountability Gap Newport's headline recycling success — hard-won through smaller bins, three-weekly collections, and the Wastesavers social enterprise partnership — coexists with Wales's worst fly-tipping record and a 38% recyclable content in residual black bins. Both failures trace to the same structural root: insufficient accessible disposal infrastructure for Newport's most deprived and digitally excluded communities. No penalty has ever been enforced against a Welsh authority under the 2011 Monitoring and Penalties Regulations — deterrence operates rhetorically, not financially. This accountability gap means the incentive for structural investment in infrastructure has consistently lost out to the incentive to report acceptable headline recycling numbers. Newport's wood recycling data quality review (January 2026) may yet pull the reported rate below the 70% threshold, re-exposing penalty risk.
Economic Impact Report

EIR1 Cost Transformation

Status Quo Finding — SQ1 £82/t blended cost → £392M cumulative (30-yr)

Newport's volume-weighted disposal cost of £82/t escalates at 5.9%/yr. Over 30 years, the status quo trajectory projects £392M in total feedstock disposal expenditure — generating zero financial return to Newport. The highest-cost stream, residual EfW, costs ~£155/t all-in and faces UK ETS surcharges from 2028.

ACM Correction — EIR1 £100/t TMC Fee → £1.52B 30-yr benefit (Tier 1)

Under the proposed ACM partnership, Newport pays a TMC Fee of £100/t — with a projected Circular Royalty™ return of £120/t beginning Year 2. The 30-year combined benefit across all tiers ranges from £758M (200 TPD) to £3.03B (800 TPD). Same expenditure. Restructured to generate revenue.

The Payment Flip: From Cost Centre to Revenue Engine

Newport City Council has spent decades paying to manage its manufacturing feedstock — and that expenditure has generated no financial return whatsoever. The TMC Fee does not increase Newport's expenditure; at £100/t it sits at the regional floor rate. Newport's actual cost for its residual EfW stream alone is ~£155/t all-in. Redirecting that stream to ACM at £100/t is an immediate £55/t saving on the highest-cost disposal route in Newport's portfolio. The Circular Royalty™ then turns Year 2 into a net positive: 120% of every TMC Fee pound paid in Year 1 is returned as projected Royalty income in Year 2, compounding at 1%/year for the life of the partnership.

✓ Crossover Point: Year 2 From Year 2 onward, Newport's projected Circular Royalty™ income exceeds its TMC Fee expenditure at all three proposed configurations. The Royalty starts at 120% of Year 1 TMC payments, escalating at 1%/year. This is not a rebate — it is a separately earned manufacturing revenue stream under CIPFA/IAS revenue recognition standards.

Year-by-Year Net Benefit — 200 TPD Minimum Configuration (Illustrative)

YearFacility TonsTMC Fee (£/t)TMC Outflow (£M)Circular Royalty™ (£M)Avoided Cost (£M)Net Annual Benefit (£M)
Year 1 (Q3 2027)45,625£100£4.56M£0 (lag)£3.74M−£0.82M
Year 273,000£101£7.37M£5.53M£5.99M+£4.15M
Year 373,000£102£7.45M£8.97M£6.34M+£7.86M
Year 573,000£105£7.67M£9.18M£7.10M+£8.61M
Year 1073,000£110£8.03M£9.60M£9.47M+£11.04M
Year 2073,000£122£8.91M£11.82M£16.84M+£19.75M
Year 3073,000£135£9.86M£14.59M£29.92M+£34.65M

Illustrative projection — 200 TPD (Minimum) configuration. Not a contractual commitment. TMC Fee escalates at 1%/yr. Royalty = 1.20 × TMC Fee × prior-year tons, from Year 2. Avoided Cost = FWDC £82/t escalating at 5.9%/yr × facility tons.

Council Education

"We already pay disposal fees — how is this different?"

Think of it like a refinery arrangement. Newport sends manufacturing feedstock to the ACM facility and pays a TMC Fee — exactly as it currently pays gate fees to Viridor and others. The difference is that the ACM facility uses that feedstock to manufacture Renewable Graphite, Renewable Industrial Gases, Renewable Refined Water, and other products. A portion of that manufacturing revenue is returned to Newport as a Circular Royalty™. You're not paying more. You're paying the same expenditure to a partner who pays you back — with interest.

Economic Impact Report

EIR2 Liability Elimination

Status Quo Finding — SQ3 ~£167M–£190M+ Total Liability Exposure

Newport's waste-related financial liabilities — dominated by Prosiect Gwyrdd contractual obligations (~£160–180M lifetime), Docks Way post-closure provision (£6.9M, understated), unquantified PFAS risk, and AD re-procurement exposure — represent the largest concentration of financial risk on Newport's forward balance sheet.

ACM Correction — EIR2 Title Transfer Arrests All Forward Accrual

Under the proposed COA, title to manufacturing feedstock transfers to Carbotura Inc. at the point of receipt. From that point, Newport is no longer the responsible party for that material under IAS 37 (adapted). New environmental provisions cannot accrue on feedstock that Newport does not own. All permitting, environmental liability, and regulatory obligations transfer to Carbotura Inc.

Liability-to-ACM Correction Ledger

Liability CategoryCurrent ExposureACM MechanismBalance Sheet Outcome
PFAS Contamination (Docks Way)Unquantified LOWTitle transfer at receipt — ACM feedstock no longer generates new PFAS-generating disposal. Docks Way legacy addressed via Exogenesis Protocol option (legacy material remediation).No new forward PFAS obligation from ACM stream; legacy site remediation revenue opportunity
Landfill Post-Closure (£6.9M+)£6.9M accrued; likely higher MEDFeedstock diverted to ACM facility does not enter landfill. Docks Way legacy provision remains, but no new closure obligation can accrue from ACM-routed material.Existing provision unchanged; forward accrual arrested from COA commencement
Prosiect Gwyrdd Lock-in (~£160–180M)~£160–180M lifetime LOWACM absorbs feedstock streams currently outside PG contractual scope (incoming volumes as recycling improves, new council partnerships). Reduces volume risk without contract breach.Prosiect Gwyrdd volume risk partially hedged; no new EfW commitment required post-2041
AD Re-procurement (~£143K/yr)Emerging, not accrued MEDACM accepts food waste as manufacturing feedstock under the proposed COA. Newport's AD contract expiry in ~2027 is replaced by ACM's TMC Fee structure.AD re-procurement cost eliminated from ~2027 if ACM operational
IAS 37 Provisions (Forward)On-balance-sheet risk MEDTitle transfer means Newport cannot be required to recognise new environmental provisions for ACM-routed feedstock under IAS 37 (adapted) provisions guidance.Forward provision growth arrested; existing provisions gradually amortised as legacy sites close
🔑 Title Transfer Is the Key The legal and accounting basis for Newport's liability elimination is straightforward: under IAS 37 (adapted for UK local authorities per the CIPFA Code), a provision must be recognised when Newport has a present obligation, it is probable that an outflow will occur, and the amount can be estimated reliably. When feedstock title transfers to Carbotura Inc. at the ACM facility gate, Newport no longer has a present obligation in respect of that material. No new provision can be raised. No new environmental regulatory obligation attaches to Newport. The CIPFA/IAS treatment does not require Newport to carry forward any environmental liability for material that has passed title — and Newport's auditors should be consulted to confirm this treatment prior to executing any agreement.
Economic Impact Report

EIR3 Capacity Solution

Status Quo Finding — SQ2 Docks Way closes 2025/26 — NOW

Newport's only council-operated disposal facility closes within the current fiscal year. The Prosiect Gwyrdd EfW contract runs to ~2041 but is approaching volume risk territory as recycling improves. The city has one HWRC for 159,587 residents. No approved replacement capacity. No capital budget identified.

ACM Correction — EIR3 200–800 TPD Online Before Current Gaps Compound

Carbotura's Minimum configuration (200 TPD / 73,000 t/yr) fully addresses Newport's annual MSW volume with capacity for regional imports. The building shell is sized for 1,000 TPD from Day 1 — future expansion requires modules only, not new civil construction. COD target: Q3 2027, with construction commencing Q1 2026.

Capacity vs. Closure Timeline

ACM Commissioning vs. Docks Way Closure — Newport, 2025–2030
2025/26 2026/27 Q3 2027 2027/28 2028/29 2030+ DOCKS WAY CLOSES £975K revenue lost ACM CONSTRUCTION (~18 months) 200 TPD MIN: Operational — 73,000 t/yr ↑ COD Q3 2027 400 TPD T1: Full Capacity — 146,000 t/yr (Q4 2027–Q2 2028) 800 TPD T2: Full Capacity — 292,000 t/yr (2028–2029) COD Q3 2027 ACM Min / T1 ACM T2 Docks Way Closure
Illustrative commissioning timeline based on Q3 2027 COD target and 18-month construction schedule. Module-by-module commissioning — each 100 TPD module commissioned quarterly after Module 1 COD.
✓ No New Landfill Required The proposed ACM facility's building shell is constructed to 1,000 TPD capacity from Day 1 — but only the modules for the selected tier are installed initially. Newport acquires no new disposal capacity obligation: feedstock arrives, title transfers to Carbotura, and all environmental permitting attaches to the ACM facility as a manufacturing site under NAICS 325xxx/331xxx. Newport is not a waste facility operator under this structure. No new NRW waste management licence is required from Newport.
Economic Impact Report

EIR4 Jobs & Economic Impact

ACM Economic Contribution — Newport City Council 156 Direct Manufacturing Jobs (400 TPD) · £17.2M Annual Payroll

At Tier 1 (400 TPD, £189M Carbotura investment), the proposed ACM facility creates 156 direct manufacturing jobs at an estimated average salary of £110,000 — significantly above Newport's median. These positions are classified under NAICS 325xxx/331xxx (manufacturing chemicals and metals), not NAICS 562 (waste management). Newport's M4 corridor logistics position and Port of Newport access make it the strongest candidate in South Wales for a regional ACM hub.

78
Jobs — 200 TPD Min
156
Jobs — 400 TPD T1
312
Jobs — 800 TPD T2
£110K
Est. Average Salary
1.8×
Economic Multiplier
NAICS 325/331
Manufacturing Classification

Jobs & Payroll by Configuration

ConfigurationDirect JobsAnnual Payroll (Direct)Induced Jobs (1.8× multiplier)Total Economic Impact
200 TPD (Minimum)78 FTE~£8.6M/yr~62~140 total jobs; ~£15.5M/yr total
400 TPD (Tier 1)156 FTE~£17.2M/yr~125~281 total jobs; ~£30.9M/yr total
800 TPD (Tier 2)312 FTE~£34.3M/yr~250~562 total jobs; ~£61.7M/yr total
Economic Development

Newport's Compound Semiconductor Cluster Advantage

Newport is already home to KLA/SPTS (550+ staff), IQE, and Vantage/Microsoft data centres — specialist technology employers generating high-value jobs in the M4 corridor. An ACM facility producing Renewable Graphite, Renewable Advanced Carbon Products, and Renewable Industrial Gases is a natural complement to this cluster: these are precision manufacturing outputs, not commodity waste products. The NAICS 325xxx (chemicals manufacturing) and 331xxx (metals manufacturing) classifications mean ACM employment sits in the same planning use class and labour market as Newport's existing technology employers — not with waste management. Local hiring from Newport's significant unemployed technical workforce would be prioritised in the Term Sheet discussion.

Economic Impact Report

EIR5 Fiscal Impact

The ACM partnership generates fiscal benefits for Newport across three channels: the Circular Royalty™ (direct revenue to the council), reduced avoided disposal costs (budget savings), and manufacturing employment generating income tax, National Insurance, and business rates contributions to the local and regional economy.

Fiscal Channel200 TPD400 TPD800 TPDTiming
Circular Royalty™ (annual, Year 5)~£9.2M/yr~£18.4M/yr~£36.8M/yrFrom Year 2
Avoided Cost Saving (annual, Year 5)~£7.1M/yr~£14.2M/yr~£28.4M/yrFrom Year 1
Business Rates (est. at manufacturing rateable value)~£350K–£600K/yr~£700K–£1.2M/yr~£1.4M–£2.4M/yrFrom COD
PAYE / NI — Direct Employment~£2.6M/yr~£5.2M/yr~£10.3M/yrFrom COD
Docks Way Revenue ReplacementReplaces £975K by Year 3Replaces £975K by Year 2Replaces £975K in Year 2From Year 2
Combined Year 5 Fiscal Benefit (est.)~£19.5M/yr~£39.0M/yr~£78.0M/yrProjected

Illustrative projections. Business rates estimated at standard manufacturing rateable value for a facility of this scale. PAYE/NI estimated at 30% of gross payroll. Royalty and avoided cost per Step 4E methodology. Not a contractual commitment.

💷 Newport's £21.375M Budget Gap — Addressed Newport City Council faces a documented £21.375 million budget gap. At Tier 1 (400 TPD), the projected combined fiscal benefit — Circular Royalty™, avoided costs, business rates, and employment contributions — reaches approximately £39M/yr by Year 5. This is not a speculative uplift: it is the direct financial consequence of restructuring Newport's existing waste expenditure through a manufacturing partnership that returns revenue to the community rather than extracting it for private operators.
Economic Impact Report

EIR6 Balance Sheet Transformation

Status Quo Finding — SQ3 Liabilities Growing · Revenue Declining

Docks Way closure triggers the transition of a £6.9M+ provision to active post-closure phase. PFAS uncertainty creates unquantified off-balance-sheet exposure. Prosiect Gwyrdd ETS risk adds £297K–£1.48M/yr from 2028. Newport's Accumulated Surplus is under pressure from a £21.375M budget gap.

ACM Correction — EIR6 Operating Revenue from Year 2 · Forward Provisions Arrested

The Circular Royalty™ is recognised as service income under CIPFA Revenue Recognition guidance — no capital obligation. Title transfer arrests new environmental provisions under IAS 37 (adapted). The TMC Fee is an operating expenditure on Newport's revenue account — categorically equivalent to existing disposal contracts. Newport's Accumulated Surplus improves from Year 2 as royalty income exceeds TMC Fee outflow.

CIPFA / IAS Accounting Treatment

StandardApplies ToTreatmentBalance Sheet Impact
IAS 37 (adapted)Environmental ProvisionsTitle transfer stops new environmental provision accrual — Newport no longer has a present obligation in respect of ACM-routed feedstockForward provision growth arrested from COA commencement
IFRS 16 (adapted)COA as Service AgreementCOA is a service agreement, not a lease — Carbotura owns and operates the facility; Newport pays a TMC Fee for a serviceOff-balance-sheet — no right-of-use asset or lease liability
CIPFA Code — RevenueCircular Royalty™ incomeRoyalty recognised as service income when earned annually — consistent with CIPFA revenue recognition guidanceP&L: revenue from Year 2; Accumulated Surplus improves
CIPFA Code — ExpenditureTMC FeeTMC Fee is an operating expenditure — categorically equivalent to existing disposal contracts under the CIPFA CodeNo new capital commitment; no debt instruments; operating budget line

Newport City Council should confirm accounting treatment with its external auditors and Section 151 Officer prior to executing any agreement. This analysis represents Carbotura's view of the likely treatment and is not a professional accounting opinion.

Municipal Credit Quality Analysis

Newport's bond/credit rating is not publicly disclosed. The following analysis applies the four credit assessment inputs used by DBRS Morningstar and S&P Global Ratings to evaluate UK local authority creditworthiness, and assesses how the ACM partnership affects each input.

Credit InputCurrent PositionACM Partnership EffectDirection
Operating SurplusUnder pressure — £21.375M budget gap; Docks Way revenue loss £975K/yrCircular Royalty™ adds recurring operating revenue from Year 2; replaces Docks Way revenue and vastly exceeds it by Year 3↑ Positive
Debt BurdenNo new ACM-related debt — Carbotura 100% finances CAPEXZero additional debt for Newport; TMC Fee is operating expenditure, not a financing arrangement↑ Neutral / Positive
Contingent LiabilityProsiect Gwyrdd contractual (~£160–180M); PFAS unquantified; AD re-procurementTitle transfer arrests PFAS forward accrual; AD re-procurement eliminated; no new EfW commitment↑ Positive
Revenue DiversificationHeavily reliant on Welsh Government grants and rate support; single EfW operator dependencyCircular Royalty™ is a private sector manufacturing revenue stream — independent of Welsh Government grant cycles and EfW contract terms↑ Positive
🏦 PFAS Disclosure Trap — Pre-Disclosure Protection Newport's Docks Way post-closure provision of £6.9M was set in 2021/22, before the current regulatory environment around PFAS contamination crystallised. If Docks Way leachate is found to contain PFAS at concentrations triggering enhanced NRW treatment obligations, Newport faces a material upward provision revision — potentially a credit event depending on magnitude. Commissioning ACM before this disclosure, and documenting the title-transfer mechanism's forward liability arrest in audited accounts, creates a provable narrative for rating agency presentation: the council recognised the structural liability risk and took action before it became a balance sheet event.
✓ Borrowing Cost Chain A demonstrable improvement across Newport's four credit quality inputs — operating surplus, debt burden neutrality, contingent liability reduction, and revenue diversification — creates the conditions for a credit quality conversation with rating agencies. At Newport's anticipated borrowing volumes for capital investment (housing, transport, infrastructure), a 25 basis point improvement in borrowing cost saves approximately £250,000–£500,000 per year on a £100M future debt base. Over 20 years, that is £5M–£10M in financing savings attributable, in part, to the ACM partnership restructuring Newport's balance sheet exposure.
Finance Education

What does the Section 151 Officer need to know?

Under IAS 37 (adapted for UK local authorities per the CIPFA Code), the ACM partnership has three clean accounting outcomes: (1) the TMC Fee is an operating expenditure line, replacing the existing disposal contract expenditure — no debt, no lease, no capital commitment; (2) the Circular Royalty™ is service income recognised in the year it is earned; (3) title transfer means Newport's forward environmental provisions are arrested — no new IAS 37 provisions can be raised against material Newport no longer holds title to. The S151 Officer's primary question will be whether the COA constitutes an IFRS 16 lease arrangement — it does not, because Carbotura identifies, controls, and operates the asset independently of Newport's direction.

Economic Impact Report

EIR7 Environmental Correction

Status Quo Finding — SQ5 38% Black Bin Recyclable · 8,139 Fly-Tips · EfW to 2041

Newport's headline recycling rate of 71.45% coexists with Wales's worst fly-tipping record, 38% recyclable content in residual bins, and an EfW contract that is structurally incompatible with the Welsh Government's Beyond Recycling 2050 ambition. Each year of status quo, approximately 5,600 tonnes of recyclable material is incinerated at Trident Park instead of recovered.

ACM Correction — EIR7 Near-Zero Emissions · 98%+ Material Recovery · No Ash

ACM's Recyclotron operates without combustion in an anoxic electromagnetic molecular reforming environment. No flame, no ash, no Liquifact (leachate) discharge, no flue gas. Material recovery approaches 98% across nine product categories. Newport's Welsh Government Beyond Recycling commitments are enhanced, not compromised. The facility qualifies as a manufacturing operation under Welsh planning policy — not as EfW infrastructure subject to the 2021 moratorium.

Environmental Performance Comparison

IndicatorCurrent Status Quo (EfW / Landfill)Proposed ACM FacilityNet Change
Material Recovery Rate~25–40% (EfW energy; recycling stream excluded)~98% across nine product categories+58–73pp improvement
CO₂ Equivalent per tonneEfW: ~400–700 kgCO₂e/t; Landfill: ~500–900 kgCO₂e/tDesigned for near-zero emissions (Island Mode, no utility grid)Near-zero vs. current
Residual Ash Production~25–30% of input mass (bottom ash + fly ash)Zero — no combustion, no ash100% reduction
Liquifact (Leachate) DischargeActive at Docks Way; ongoing post-closure obligationZero — no Liquifact discharge; Renewable Refined Water (DI) produced insteadEliminated
Welsh Beyond Recycling AlignmentEfW contract incompatible with 100% recycling by 2050 targetACM counts toward circular economy targets under Welsh classification reviewAligned
PFAS GenerationLandfill leachate: active PFAS generation riskNo landfill → no new PFAS generation from ACM streamEliminated (forward)
🌿 Newport's Beyond Recycling Compliance Pathway Wales's Beyond Recycling strategy requires 100% recycling by 2050. Newport's Prosiect Gwyrdd EfW contract runs to 2041 — creating a structural 9-year incompatibility window. ACM resolves this: by absorbing feedstock streams not committed to Trident Park, and by generating manufacturing products that count as circular economy outputs, ACM accelerates Newport's trajectory toward the 100% target without requiring any breach of existing contractual obligations. Newport positions itself as a model authority for the Welsh Government's circular manufacturing ambition — not a laggard managing an EfW lock-in.
Partnership Proposal

P0 What We're Proposing

Carbotura Inc. proposes a long-term Advanced Circular Manufacturing partnership with Newport City Council. Under this structure, Carbotura finances, builds, owns, and operates an ACM facility within or adjacent to Newport's administrative boundary. Newport provides manufacturing feedstock under a Circular Offtake Agreement (COA) and pays a TMC Fee of £100/tonne — the regional floor rate. In return, Newport receives a Circular Royalty™ from Year 2, projected at 120% of the prior year's TMC Fee outflow, escalating at 1%/year for the partnership lifetime of 30 years.

Minimum Configuration 200 TPD
Annual Throughput73,000 t/yr
Carbotura CAPEX~£102M
Direct Mfg Jobs78 FTE
COD TargetQ3 2027
30-yr Combined Benefit~£758M
Year 2 Crossover✓ Net Positive
Tier 1 — Recommended 400 TPD
Annual Throughput146,000 t/yr
Carbotura CAPEX~£189M
Direct Mfg Jobs156 FTE
COD TargetQ3 2027
30-yr Combined Benefit~£1.52B
Year 2 Crossover✓ Net Positive
Tier 2 — Regional Hub 800 TPD
Annual Throughput292,000 t/yr
Carbotura CAPEX~£362M
Direct Mfg Jobs312 FTE
COD TargetQ3 2027 (Phase 1)
30-yr Combined Benefit~£3.03B
Year 2 Crossover✓ Net Positive

Six Core Proposal Elements

① Zero Capital Commitment from Newport

Carbotura finances 100% of facility design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. Newport's financial exposure is limited to the TMC Fee — an operating expenditure equivalent to, and partially replacing, existing disposal contracts. No debt, no lease, no capital budget required.

② Circular Royalty™ — Net Positive from Year 2

Newport receives a Circular Royalty™ equal to 120% of the prior year's TMC Fee × annual tonnage, beginning Year 2. The royalty escalates at 1%/year for the 30-year partnership term. This is not a rebate or discount — it is a separately earned manufacturing revenue stream, recognised under CIPFA revenue recognition guidance.

③ Title Transfer — Liability Elimination

Manufacturing feedstock title transfers to Carbotura Inc. at the facility gate. From that point, Newport holds no environmental liability, regulatory obligation, or IAS 37 provision requirement in respect of that material. All permitting, compliance, and monitoring obligations attach to Carbotura as the facility operator under a manufacturing licence.

④ Prosiect Gwyrdd Complementary — No Contract Breach

The proposed partnership does not require Newport to breach, renegotiate, or exit the Prosiect Gwyrdd EfW contract. ACM initially accepts feedstock streams currently outside Trident Park's contracted scope. As Newport's recycling rate continues to improve and PG volume risk intensifies, ACM absorbs the surplus — protecting Newport from "put or pay" penalties while generating Royalty income.

⑤ Manufacturing Employment — NAICS 325xxx/331xxx

The ACM facility is classified under manufacturing NAICS codes, not waste management. Newport creates 78–312 high-value manufacturing jobs (depending on tier) at an estimated average salary of £110,000 — significantly above Newport's current median wage. Employment in Newport's compound semiconductor corridor is enhanced, not disrupted.

⑥ Welsh Regulatory Alignment

ACM operates under a manufacturing permit from Natural Resources Wales — not a solid waste management licence. The facility supports Newport's Beyond Recycling commitments, Welsh Government circular economy policy, and Wellbeing of Future Generations Act objectives. No EfW moratorium risk. No solid waste permit triggers.

Engagement Timeline — Where We Are Now

Partnership Proposal

P1 About ACM & Technology

Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM) is Carbotura Inc.'s proprietary molecular-level reforming technology platform. Unlike conventional energy-from-waste (combustion), anaerobic digestion, or mechanical recycling, ACM operates in an anoxic (oxygen-free) electromagnetic environment that breaks molecular bonds without flame. The process generates no combustion gases, no bottom ash, no fly ash, and no Liquifact (leachate). Outputs are classified as manufactured products under NAICS 325xxx (chemical manufacturing) and 331xxx (metals manufacturing).

The Four ACM Protocols

RECYCLOTRON PROTOCOL
Primary Processing

The core molecular reforming reactor. Accepts all categories of manufacturing feedstock (MSW, commercial, industrial). Operates at atmospheric pressure in an anoxic electromagnetic field. No combustion. No flame. Near-zero emissions. 98%+ material recovery rate across nine output product categories.

EXOGENESIS PROTOCOL
Legacy Remediation

Processes legacy landfill material and contaminated soils — directly relevant to Newport's Docks Way post-closure obligations and PFAS uncertainty. Converts buried legacy waste into recoverable products. Potential for Newport to reverse Docks Way's liability from a cost centre to a recoverable asset.

CAPTIVE PEM PROTOCOL
Energy Independence

The ACM facility operates in Island Mode — fully energy self-sufficient using Captive PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) hydrogen fuel cells powered by the facility's own Renewable Hydrogen output. Newport pays no energy infrastructure costs. The facility does not draw from the national grid under normal operations.

LIQUIFACT PROTOCOL
Zero Leachate

ACM produces zero Liquifact (leachate) discharge. All liquid fractions are processed into Renewable Refined Water (deionised) — a saleable manufacturing product. Newport's River Usk proximity and NRW leachate tightening requirements create a compliance advantage: ACM generates no new leachate risk, ever.

TMC Fee Calculation — Newport City Council

TMC Fee Derivation

Newport FWDC (Volume-Weighted Disposal Cost, s12)£82/tonne
Standard Reduction (FWDC − £5/t)£77/tonne
Regional Floor Rate (minimum)£100/tonne
MAX(Floor, FWDC − £5) appliedFloor Triggered
Newport TMC Fee: £100/tonne · Escalation: 1%/yr · Floor applies: YES

Newport's FWDC of £82/t is below the £105/t standard formula floor trigger. The TMC Fee is therefore set at the regional floor of £100/t. Note: this means Newport's TMC Fee is LOWER than its current highest-cost disposal stream (residual EfW at ~£155/t all-in). The floor rate represents an immediate saving on the residual stream, with Circular Royalty™ uplift beginning Year 2.

ACM Manufacturing Products — Nine Output Categories

Product CategoryACM NameNAICS ClassificationPrimary Markets
Renewable GraphiteRenewable Graphite™331410 (non-ferrous metals)Battery anodes, lubricants, steel production, semiconductors
Renewable HydrogenRenewable Hydrogen™325120 (industrial gases)Fuel cells (captive PEM), hydrogen economy, fuel blending
Renewable Industrial GasesRenewable Industrial Gases™325120 (industrial gases)Synthesis gas, chemical feedstocks, energy
Renewable Refined Water (DI)Renewable Refined Water™221310 (water supply)Pharmaceutical, semiconductor manufacturing, cooling
Renewable Advanced Carbon ProductsRenewable Advanced Carbon Products™325199 (other chemicals)Carbon black, activated carbon, specialty materials
Renewable Mineral AlloysRenewable Mineral Alloys™331490 (other non-ferrous)Construction aggregates, road base, mineral inputs
Renewable BiogasesRenewable Biogases™325120 (industrial gases)Biogas grid injection, biomethane, energy transition
Renewable OilsRenewable Oils™324110 (petroleum refining)Industrial lubricants, fuel blending, chemical feedstocks
Renewable SaltsRenewable Salts™325180 (other inorganic chemicals)Road de-icing, chemical manufacturing, water treatment

COA Core Terms — Summary

TermNewport ValueNotes
Partnership Term30 years from CODRenewable by mutual agreement; COD target Q3 2027
TMC Fee£100/tonne (floor)Escalates 1%/yr; FWDC £82/t triggered floor application
Circular Royalty™120% of prior-year TMC outflowPaid annually; begins Year 2; escalates 1%/yr
Minimum TonnageTBD — Term SheetNewport's Prosiect Gwyrdd obligations inform minimum
Title TransferAt facility gateNewport holds no forward environmental liability post-transfer
CAPEX Obligation£0 from Newport100% Carbotura finance; no debt, no lease, no capital line
Feedstock SpecificationAll MSW streams acceptedIncluding residual, food waste, commercial, and legacy material
Accounting TreatmentTMC = opex; Royalty = revenueCIPFA/IAS; S151 Officer and auditor review recommended

All COA terms are Stage 1 indicative. Final commercial terms are established through the Letter of Intent, Term Sheet, and COA execution process. This document does not constitute a contractual offer.

Partnership Proposal

P2 Three-Tier Build Plan

Carbotura's facility architecture is designed for staged commissioning. The building shell and civil infrastructure are constructed to 1,000 TPD capacity from Day 1 — Tier selection determines only how many processing modules are installed at COD. Additional modules require no new civil construction, enabling Newport to scale up within the existing facility footprint as regional feedstock partnerships are established. All three tiers target a Q3 2027 COD for the first phase of operations.

200 TPD — Minimum Configuration

ParameterValueNotes
Processing Capacity200 tonnes/day73,000 t/yr at full operation
Year 1 Throughput (ramp)~45,625 t (62.5% yr)Q3 2027 COD; 62.5% average utilisation Year 1
Carbotura CAPEX~£102M100% Carbotura finance; no Newport capital
Direct Manufacturing Jobs78 FTE~£8.6M/yr payroll; NAICS 325/331
TMC Fee (Year 1)£100/t£4.56M Year 1 outflow; regional floor
Circular Royalty™ (Year 2)~£5.53M120% × Year 1 TMC outflow; net positive Y2
30-yr Circular Royalty™ Total~£278MIllustrative; 1%/yr escalation
30-yr Avoided Cost Total~£480MFWDC £82/t escalating at 5.9%/yr × 73,000 t
30-yr Combined Community Benefit~£758MRoyalty + Avoided Cost cumulative
Module Commissioning Schedule2 × 100 TPD modulesBoth modules commissioned by COD Q3 2027

400 TPD — Tier 1 (Recommended for Newport)

ParameterValueNotes
Processing Capacity400 tonnes/day146,000 t/yr at full operation
Year 1 Throughput (ramp)~91,250 t (62.5% yr)Q3 2027 COD; Module 1 (200 TPD) at COD, Module 2 by Q2 2028
Carbotura CAPEX~£189M100% Carbotura finance; no Newport capital
Direct Manufacturing Jobs156 FTE~£17.2M/yr payroll; NAICS 325/331
TMC Fee (Year 1)£100/t~£9.13M Year 1 outflow; regional floor
Circular Royalty™ (Year 2)~£11.0M120% × Year 1 TMC outflow; net positive Y2
30-yr Circular Royalty™ Total~£556MIllustrative; 1%/yr escalation
30-yr Avoided Cost Total~£960MFWDC £82/t escalating at 5.9%/yr × 146,000 t
30-yr Combined Community Benefit~£1.52BRoyalty + Avoided Cost cumulative
Module Commissioning Schedule4 × 100 TPD modulesModules 1–2 at COD; Modules 3–4 by Q2 2028
✓ Tier 1 is Recommended for Newport At 400 TPD, Newport's entire annual MSW volume (69,762 t) can be absorbed from Year 1, with approximately 76,000 tonnes of regional import capacity available. This creates the foundation for a South Wales ACM hub — with Newport positioning as the first mover while neighbouring authorities (Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Monmouthshire) provide supplementary feedstock. The hub model generates additional Royalty income proportional to regional throughput beyond Newport's own MSW.

800 TPD — Tier 2 Regional Hub Configuration

ParameterValueNotes
Processing Capacity800 tonnes/day292,000 t/yr at full operation
Year 1 Throughput (ramp)~182,500 t (Phase 1)Phase 1 (400 TPD) commissions Q3 2027; Phase 2 (400 TPD) by Q2 2029
Carbotura CAPEX~£362M100% Carbotura finance; no Newport capital
Direct Manufacturing Jobs312 FTE~£34.3M/yr payroll; NAICS 325/331
TMC Fee (Year 1)£100/t~£18.25M Year 1 outflow at Phase 1 volume
Circular Royalty™ (Year 2)~£22.0M120% × Year 1 TMC outflow; net positive Y2
30-yr Circular Royalty™ Total~£1.11BIllustrative; 1%/yr escalation at full 292,000 t/yr
30-yr Avoided Cost Total~£1.92BFWDC £82/t escalating at 5.9%/yr × 292,000 t
30-yr Combined Community Benefit~£3.03BRoyalty + Avoided Cost cumulative at full capacity
Module Commissioning Schedule8 × 100 TPD modulesPhased over 2027–2029; all within existing building shell

All financial projections are illustrative. Not a contractual commitment. Figures based on Carbotura's standard deployment model and Newport's published waste data. Actual performance subject to Term Sheet and COA finalisation.

Partnership Proposal

P3 Financial Comparison

The following analysis compares Newport's projected financial position under the status quo trajectory against each of the three proposed ACM configurations over a 10-year horizon. The comparison uses Newport's published FWDC of £82/t, 5.9%/yr escalation, and Carbotura's standard TMC Fee and Circular Royalty™ structures. All figures are illustrative projections.

Status Quo vs. ACM — 10-Year Financial Comparison (400 TPD Tier 1)

Year Status Quo Cost (£M) ACM TMC Fee (£M) Circular Royalty™ (£M) Avoided Cost (£M) Net ACM Benefit (£M) Cumulative Advantage (£M)
Year 1 (2027/28)6.69.107.5−1.6−1.6
Year 27.09.411.07.9+9.5+7.9
Year 37.49.511.18.4+10.0+17.9
Year 47.89.611.28.9+10.5+28.4
Year 58.39.711.39.4+11.0+39.4
Year 68.89.811.410.0+11.6+51.0
Year 79.39.911.510.6+12.2+63.2
Year 89.910.011.611.2+12.8+76.0
Year 910.510.111.811.9+13.6+89.6
Year 1011.110.211.912.6+14.3+103.9

Illustrative projection — 400 TPD (Tier 1) configuration. Not a contractual commitment. Status Quo cost: FWDC £82/t × 146,000 t escalating at 5.9%/yr. TMC Fee: £100/t × 146,000 t escalating 1%/yr. Royalty: 120% × prior-year TMC × 146,000 t from Year 2. Avoided Cost = Status Quo cost saved by not paying legacy disposal on ACM-routed feedstock.

✓ 10-Year Cumulative Advantage: ~£103.9M (Tier 1) By Year 10, Newport's cumulative financial advantage from the Tier 1 ACM partnership — measured as Circular Royalty™ income plus avoided disposal cost escalation, minus TMC Fee outflow — reaches approximately £103.9 million. The one-year payback from the Year 1 TMC-only period (before Royalty commences) is recovered within the first half of Year 2. Newport's net position is positive from Year 2 onward for every year of the 30-year term.

All-Tier Comparison — Key Metrics

MetricStatus Quo (30-yr)200 TPD Min400 TPD T1800 TPD T2
Cumulative TMC/Disposal Cost (£M)~£392M~£256M~£296M~£340M
Circular Royalty™ Earned (£M)£0~£278M~£556M~£1,112M
Avoided Cost Value (£M)£0~£480M~£960M~£1,920M
Net Community Benefit (£M)−£392M (total spend)~+£502M~+£1.22B~+£2.69B
Direct Manufacturing Jobs0 (waste classification)78156312
Newport CAPEX£0£0£0
Crossover Year (net positive)NeverYear 2Year 2Year 2

Illustrative projections. Status quo comparison assumes FWDC £82/t at 5.9%/yr escalation on Newport's full MSW volume (69,762 t for Minimum; proportionally higher for T1/T2 including regional imports). Net Community Benefit = Royalty + Avoided Cost − TMC Fee cumulative over 30 years. Not a contractual commitment.

Partnership Proposal

P4 Community Returns — 30-Year Schedule

The Circular Royalty™ is not a rebate, a discount, or a financial instrument. It is a manufacturing revenue share — earned by the ACM facility through the sale of nine product categories, and distributed to Newport City Council as a contractual annual payment beginning Year 2 of the partnership. The following schedules show the projected Royalty and Avoided Cost trajectories for all three configurations over the full 30-year term.

Circular Royalty™ Payment Schedule — All Tiers (Years 1–30, Selected)

Year200 TPD Royalty (£M)400 TPD Royalty (£M)800 TPD Royalty (£M)TMC Rate (£/t)
Year 1— (lag)— (lag)— (lag)£100
Year 2£5.5M£11.0M£22.0M£101
Year 3£5.6M£11.1M£22.2M£102
Year 5£5.8M£11.5M£23.1M£104
Year 10£6.1M£12.1M£24.2M£110
Year 15£6.4M£12.8M£25.6M£116
Year 20£6.8M£13.5M£27.1M£122
Year 25£7.1M£14.2M£28.4M£128
Year 30 (Final)£7.5M£14.9M£29.8M£135
30-Year Total Royalty~£278M~£556M~£1.11B

Illustrative projections. Royalty = 1.20 × TMC Fee × prior-year tonnes, from Year 2. TMC Fee escalates at 1%/yr. Year 1 lag is standard — Royalty commences Year 2, reflecting manufacturing revenue recognition timing. Not a contractual commitment.

Avoided Cost Schedule — What Newport Stops Paying

Every tonne diverted to ACM is a tonne that Newport no longer routes through its legacy disposal contracts at escalating gate fees. The Avoided Cost represents the cumulative value of that diversion — measured as the difference between what Newport would have paid under status quo escalation and the TMC Fee actually paid. This is not speculative: it is the direct arithmetic consequence of replacing a 5.9%/yr cost trajectory with a 1%/yr one.

YearLegacy FWDC (£/t, 5.9%/yr)TMC Fee (£/t, 1%/yr)Savings/Tonne400 TPD Annual Avoided Cost (£M)
Year 1£87£100−£13 (Y1 deficit)−£1.9M (Y1 only)
Year 2£92£101−£9−£1.3M
Year 5£109£104+£5+£0.7M
Year 8£130£107+£23+£3.4M
Year 10£146£110+£36+£5.3M
Year 15£195£116+£79+£11.5M
Year 20£260£122+£138+£20.1M
Year 30£461£135+£326+£47.6M/yr
30-Year Cumulative (400 TPD)~£714M total SQ cost~£296M TMC total~£418M net avoided

Note: Year 1–4, the TMC Fee slightly exceeds the legacy FWDC (since FWDC £82/t triggered the floor). The Avoided Cost turns strongly positive from Year 5 as legacy escalation diverges from the 1%/yr TMC trajectory. Combined 30-year benefit (Royalty + Avoided Cost) = ~£556M + ~£960M = ~£1.52B (400 TPD). Not a contractual commitment.

~£278M
30-yr Royalty (200 TPD)
~£556M
30-yr Royalty (400 TPD)
~£1.11B
30-yr Royalty (800 TPD)
Year 2
First Royalty Payment
£47.6M/yr
Annual Avoided Cost Yr 30 (T1)
~£1.52B
Combined Benefit (T1, 30-yr)
Public & Resident Impact

P4b Public & Resident Impact

Every economic benefit in this proposal ultimately flows through Newport's 159,587 residents. This section translates the council-level financial benefits into concrete, resident-facing outcomes: fewer bins, simpler collection, a fairer HWRC system, less fly-tipping on their streets, and the conditions for council tax stability. It also confronts the real friction points that Newport's most vulnerable residents currently experience — and explains how ACM resolves them at the infrastructure level, not through communications campaigns.

Bin Reductions & Collection Simplification

Newport currently operates one of Wales's most complex collection systems, with a mandatory four-container kerbside sort regime supported by Wastesavers. This system has achieved a 71.45% recycling rate — but requires significant resident compliance effort and is structurally unable to capture the remaining 28.55% needed for the Beyond Recycling 2050 target. ACM changes the downstream relationship with residual material, with direct implications for collection system design.

Collection Stream Current Requirement Under ACM Partnership Resident Change
Black Residual Bin 3-weekly collection · 140L mandatory Retained — ACM accepts residual as feedstock No change initially; potential for relaxed size restrictions as ACM captures residual misrouting
Green Garden Waste In-house collection · Docks Way composting closing ACM accepts garden waste as Renewable Biogases feedstock Collection continuity guaranteed post-Docks Way closure; no service disruption
Food Waste Caddy Weekly collection · Tomorrow's Valley AD (expires ~2027) ACM accepts food waste from AD contract expiry (~2027 onward) Continuity of service; no re-procurement gap; no resident-facing change
Dry Recycling Bags/Boxes Kerbside sort · Wastesavers · Multiple containers Wastesavers contract continues; ACM accepts contaminated loads unsuitable for MRF Potential to reduce sorting burden: ACM accepts mixed loads that current MRF rejects
Bulky/Household Items HWRC booking required · Digital system barrier ACM facility can accept bulky items as manufacturing feedstock — no booking system required Major improvement: ACM provides alternative to HWRC booking for bulky items
HWRC Overall 1 centre for 159,587 residents · Digital booking mandatory ACM facility supplements HWRC; second drop-off point; walk-in or lorry access Reduced pressure on single HWRC; shorter queues; less digital booking dependency
✓ The 38% Black Bin Problem — Solved at the Feedstock Level Newport's waste composition analysis shows 38% of black bin contents are recyclable or compostable material that residents have placed in the residual stream. Under the status quo, this material goes to Trident Park ERF and is incinerated. Under ACM, it arrives at the facility as manufacturing feedstock and is processed through the Recyclotron Protocol — recovering Renewable Graphite, Renewable Refined Water, and other products from material that would otherwise have no secondary value. Newport's residents do not need to change their behaviour for ACM to improve on the EfW outcome: the technology handles mixed and contaminated material that current recycling infrastructure cannot.

What ACM Means for Newport Residents — Direct Benefits

🗑️ Simpler Kerbside Sorting

ACM accepts mixed and contaminated materials that current MRF infrastructure rejects. Over time, as the ACM facility absorbs non-recyclable and borderline-recyclable streams, Newport has the option to simplify its kerbside collection offer — reducing the sorting burden on residents and decreasing collection vehicle movements by consolidating more loads into single trips.

Newport's current three-weekly black bin collection is driven by contract volume commitments. As ACM provides an alternative disposal route, the rigid volume-frequency relationship loosens — potentially enabling more flexible collection schedules in later years.

🏠 HWRC Access Without Barriers

Newport's Docks Way HWRC digital booking system was introduced to manage capacity — but it created a discriminatory access barrier. Residents without smartphones, reliable internet, or English as a first language cannot book. Elderly residents, digitally excluded communities in Pillgwenlly, Ringland, and Bettws face de facto denial of the free disposal service they fund through council tax.

The ACM facility, as a manufacturing intake point, does not operate on an appointment booking model. Residents and community groups can bring bulky and mixed materials directly to the facility for processing. This is an access improvement with no additional booking technology requirement.

🌱 Garden Waste — Post-Docks Way Continuity

Docks Way's composting operation closes in 2025/26. Newport has no confirmed replacement for in-house garden waste composting at scale. ACM's Recyclotron Protocol accepts green waste as a Renewable Biogases feedstock — providing continuity of garden waste collection service from the point Docks Way composting ceases, with no service gap and no additional cost to residents.

The Circular Royalty™ income generated from green waste processing returns to the council — a new revenue stream from a material category that has historically generated only costs.

💷 Council Tax Stability

Newport's £21.375M budget gap is the primary driver of potential council tax increases and service cuts. The ACM partnership generates projected Circular Royalty™ income of £11M–£22M/year from Year 2 (at Tier 1), growing to £15M–£29M by Year 30. Over time, this revenue stream directly reduces the pressure on council tax as the primary mechanism for funding waste services.

A council that earns revenue from its manufacturing feedstock instead of paying to dispose of it is a council that can hold council tax lower, protect services in social care and transport, and invest in Newport's communities rather than in the waste contractor's balance sheet.

🔧 Food Waste Service Continuity — 2027 Risk Eliminated

Newport's Tomorrow's Valley AD contract expires around 2027. Re-procurement in a constrained South Wales AD market could add £143,000/year to costs — or, in a worst case, create a service disruption if no suitable contract can be secured at acceptable cost. ACM accepts food waste as manufacturing feedstock with no need for specialised AD infrastructure, eliminating the re-procurement risk and maintaining weekly food waste collection for residents without interruption.

📊 Docks Way Revenue — Replaced and Exceeded

The £975,000 annual revenue from Docks Way landfill disappears in 2025/26. Under ACM, the Circular Royalty™ replaces this revenue within the first two years of the partnership and substantially exceeds it from Year 3 onward. At Tier 1, the Year 3 royalty is projected at approximately £11.1M — eleven times the Docks Way revenue it replaces. This additional income funds services that might otherwise have faced cuts to offset the landfill closure.

Fly-Tipping: Addressing Newport's Most Visible Failure

Newport's 8,139 fly-tipping incidents in 2023/24 represent approximately 20% of the entire Welsh total of ~40,000 incidents (StatsWales Environmental Enforcement Statistics 2023/24) — a rate that has no parallel elsewhere in the country. Incidents surged 87% between 2019/20 (~4,350 incidents, base year) and 2021/22 (~8,140 incidents) before partially stabilising. The cost to Newport's residents is visible and daily: mattresses, construction waste, garden refuse, and household items illegally dumped on verges, alleyways, and country roads across the city. The £343,000/year clearance cost is the council's bill — approximately £2.15 per resident, per year. The lived experience is Newport's residents'.

🚨 Newport's Fly-Tipping Crisis — Root Cause Newport's fly-tipping epidemic is structurally caused, not behaviourally caused. The city has one HWRC for 159,587 residents — among Wales's lowest provision ratios. That HWRC requires digital booking. Residents who cannot, or choose not to, book online have no legitimate alternative for bulky items, garden waste over the kerbside allowance, or non-standard materials. The rational economic response to a system with a high transaction cost and no alternative is to dump illegally. Every campaign, fine, and education initiative has failed to change this calculus — because the calculus is correct. The answer is infrastructure, not messaging.

🗺️ Second Drop-Off Point — ACM as Infrastructure Solution

The ACM facility provides Newport's residents with a second legitimate disposal point for the first time in the city's recent history. Materials that previously had no accessible destination — bulky items, mixed loads, garden waste bags in excess of the kerbside limit — can be delivered directly to the ACM facility as manufacturing feedstock. No booking system. No digital barrier. No appointment required.

This resolves the root cause of fly-tipping at the infrastructure level. Every incident avoided is a cost saved for Newport's taxpayers — and a street corner, alleyway, or green space returned to Newport's communities.

📉 Fly-Tipping Trajectory: What the Numbers Mean

At £343,000/year in clearance costs, Newport spends more responding to fly-tipping than many Welsh authorities spend on their entire HWRC network. A 50% reduction in incidents — achievable if the ACM facility eliminates the disposal access barrier for the most common fly-tipping materials — would save approximately £172,000/year in direct clearance costs, plus enforcement costs, NRW compliance costs, and the unmeasured reputational and environmental costs of Wales's worst fly-tipping record.

The broader economic benefit — cleaner streets improving property values, resident wellbeing, and Newport's reputation as a city — is unquantifiable but real.

🌍 Deprivation & Fly-Tipping — The Hidden Link

Newport's highest fly-tipping rates correlate with its most deprived wards: Pillgwenlly, Ringland, Bettws, and St. Julians. These communities have the highest rates of digital exclusion, lowest vehicle ownership, and fewest residents able to use the current HWRC booking system. The single HWRC at Docks Way is also geographically distant from Newport's northern and eastern communities.

ACM's facility siting — within or adjacent to Newport's urban envelope — can be selected to maximise accessibility for these communities, providing a disposal option closer to the areas with the highest current fly-tipping incidence.

Friction Points: Honest Assessment

No proposal of this scale is without legitimate questions. The following addresses the most common friction points Newport's residents and councillors are likely to raise — not as obstacles, but as structural features of the decision Newport is being asked to make.

"My bins are already complicated enough. Will this make things worse?"
No. ACM is a downstream change — it happens after Newport's collection service. Residents do not change how they sort, what containers they use, or how often they put bins out. The first-generation ACM partnership operates on Newport's existing collection infrastructure. Any simplification of the kerbside sort offer is a future option Newport gains — not a requirement imposed on residents.
"Digital exclusion — how does the ACM facility help if I can't book online?"
The ACM facility is a manufacturing intake point, not a public-facing HWRC. It does not require a booking system for the purpose of feedstock delivery — commercial collections and council vehicles deliver feedstock in bulk. For residents wishing to make direct drop-off deliveries of bulky items, the facility's intake process does not need to replicate the HWRC booking barrier. This would be confirmed in the Term Sheet as an access commitment in Newport's interests.
"Will the council use the Royalty to raise council tax anyway?"
The Circular Royalty™ creates a structural surplus in Newport's waste budget that reduces the baseline pressure on council tax. Whether and how that surplus is deployed is a democratic decision for Newport's Council. What ACM provides is the financial headroom to make that choice — rather than raising council tax to fund escalating disposal costs. Carbotura recommends Newport publicly commit, at Stage 2, to a resident benefit allocation from Royalty income.
"What about the Wastesavers jobs? Will ACM replace the social enterprise?"
Wastesavers' contract covers kerbside collection — not treatment. ACM is a treatment facility. The two functions are complementary, not competitive. Newport's continued partnership with Wastesavers is a collection decision unaffected by the ACM treatment structure. Wastesavers' 130+ jobs, nine reuse shops, and community mission are preserved under any ACM tier. Carbotura would actively support a Wastesavers–ACM community partnership for public engagement and resident communications.
"My community has high deprivation. Will this help us or just the council's budget?"
Both. The ACM facility creates 78–312 manufacturing jobs at £110,000 average salary in a city where manufacturing employment has declined for decades. Local hiring priority would be specified in the Term Sheet. The ACM facility's accessibility as a drop-off alternative to the HWRC directly benefits the most deprived communities with the highest fly-tipping incidence. And the Circular Royalty™ funds Newport's budget — which funds the services those communities depend on most.
"What if Carbotura doesn't deliver? What are Newport's protections?"
Newport's COA exposure is limited to the TMC Fee — an operating cost equivalent to existing disposal contracts. If Carbotura fails to deliver the facility, Newport retains its existing disposal arrangements at no additional cost; it simply does not receive the Royalty. Newport has zero CAPEX at risk. The COA includes performance obligations, minimum throughput guarantees, and step-in rights for Newport in the event of non-performance — detailed in the Term Sheet stage.
ℹ️ Community Benefit Recommendation Carbotura recommends Newport City Council commit, at the time of LOI execution, to a publicly stated Community Benefit Allocation from Circular Royalty™ income. This could take the form of a Community Benefit Fund (modelled on the Welsh Government's Community Benefit Policy for renewable energy), a council tax stabilisation pledge, or a ring-fenced investment fund for Newport's most deprived wards. The specific mechanism is Newport's to decide. Carbotura will support any public communications Newport wishes to develop in connection with this commitment. A visible, resident-facing benefit allocation is the strongest inoculation against political resistance to the partnership.
Partnership Proposal

P5 Next Steps & Navigating the Transition

This section sets out the four sub-engagements that Carbotura recommends Newport City Council initiate immediately, the key stakeholder touchpoints in the transition from status quo to ACM partnership, and the talking points Newport officers and councillors will need for internal and public discussions.

Sub-A: Legal & Procurement Pathway

Does the COA require a full OJEU / Find a Tender procurement process?
The COA is a service agreement for the receipt of manufacturing feedstock — not a public works contract, concession, or supply contract under the Public Contracts Regulations 2015 (as retained in UK law). Newport's legal advisors will need to confirm the classification, but Carbotura's position is that the COA falls within the category of "contracts for the acquisition of goods or services where [the contracting authority] is the supplier rather than the buyer of services." Newport is supplying feedstock; Carbotura is accepting it and returning a royalty. Newport should seek specialist public procurement counsel before LOI stage. Carbotura will support this process with its own legal team.

Sub-B: Welsh Government & NRW Engagement

Does ACM require Welsh Government approval or NRW sign-off before Newport can proceed?
NRW sign-off on the manufacturing permit (EPR — Environmental Permitting Regulations, as applicable in Wales) is required for the ACM facility — but this is Carbotura's obligation, not Newport's. Newport's engagement with Welsh Government is a strategic recommendation, not a legal prerequisite: positioning Newport as the lead authority in Wales's first ACM deployment strengthens Newport's relationship with Welsh Government's Circular Economy and Beyond Recycling policy teams. Carbotura will request a joint pre-application meeting with NRW at Stage 2 (LOI stage), attended by Newport officers.

Sub-C: Prosiect Gwyrdd & Viridor Relationship

How does Newport manage its relationship with Viridor during ACM development?
Newport's Prosiect Gwyrdd contract is maintained in full under the proposed ACM structure — ACM begins with non-PG-committed streams. Newport should not disclose ACM discussions to Viridor at Stage 1 or Stage 2. At Stage 3 (Term Sheet stage), Newport may wish to notify Viridor that it is exploring supplementary disposal partnerships for non-contracted volumes — a standard commercial communication that does not breach the confidentiality provisions of most PFI/PPP contracts. Newport's legal advisors should review the Prosiect Gwyrdd contract for notification obligations before Stage 3.

Sub-D: Internal Council Governance

What governance approvals does Newport City Council require internally to proceed?
Stage 1 (this document): No formal approval required. Officers may brief Cabinet informally. Stage 2 (LOI): Chief Executive and S151 Officer authorisation. Cabinet report recommended for transparency. Stage 3 (Term Sheet): Full Cabinet approval recommended. Legal and financial due diligence commissioned. Stage 4 (COA Execution): Full Council approval required. Scrutiny Committee review recommended. Democratic legitimacy is strengthened by early, transparent engagement — not by concealment. Carbotura recommends Newport establish a cross-party ACM Working Group at Stage 2 to include opposition members in the due diligence process from the outset.

Talking Points for Newport Officers & Councillors

💬 "We're not changing our recycling service — we're changing where the material goes next." The kerbside sort, Wastesavers contract, and green bin collections continue unchanged. ACM is a downstream treatment technology, not a collection system change.
💬 "We're replacing a cost with a revenue stream." Newport currently pays to dispose of its manufacturing feedstock. Under ACM, that same expenditure returns 120% as a Circular Royalty™ from Year 2. Newport keeps the service; Newport gains the revenue.
💬 "Wales's worst fly-tipping record needs an infrastructure answer, not another communications campaign." Newport has tried communications, enforcement, and education. 8,139 incidents persist because there is nowhere for people to legally take bulky and excess materials without a digital booking system. ACM provides that somewhere.
💬 "Docks Way's closure doesn't leave Newport without options — it opens a new one." The loss of £975K annual revenue from Docks Way is being replaced by a Circular Royalty™ that exceeds it by Year 3 and continues growing for 30 years. Newport turns a site liability into the foundation of a manufacturing partnership.
💬 "ACM creates manufacturing jobs, not waste jobs." 78–312 positions at £110,000 average salary, classified under manufacturing codes alongside Newport's semiconductor cluster. Newport diversifies its employment base in the UK's fastest-growing advanced manufacturing corridor.
💬 "Newport doesn't need to fund this — Carbotura does." Zero capital from Newport. No debt. No lease. No PFI structure. Newport signs a service agreement and earns a royalty. The risk sits with Carbotura; the revenue flows to Newport.
⚠️ Time Is the Critical Variable Docks Way closes in 2025/26 — this fiscal year. Newport's Tomorrow's Valley AD contract expires in approximately 2027. UK ETS inclusion of EfW from 2028 adds £297K–£1.48M/year to Newport's Prosiect Gwyrdd bill. The ACM construction period is 18 months. A Q3 2027 COD requires construction commencement no later than Q1 2026 — meaning a Letter of Intent must be executed by Q3 2025 at the latest for Newport to capture the first-mover advantage. Every quarter of delay is a quarter in which the status quo's costs compound at 5.9%, while the ACM partnership's crossover point remains fixed at Year 2.

Contacts & Accountability Pathways

📬 Carbotura — Enquiries, Corrections & Media

For document corrections, factual disputes, media enquiries, or to request independent source documentation supporting any claim in this report:

📧 [email protected]

Named organisations and individuals who believe any claim in this document is inaccurate may request correction through this address. Carbotura will respond within 10 working days. Corrections are published with a visible dated notice, not silently edited.

🏛️ Newport City Council — Key Decision-Makers

Residents and organisations wishing to raise questions about Newport's waste strategy with the decision-makers responsible:

Newport City Council full councillor list and contact details: newport.gov.uk

📋 Official Oversight & Accountability Routes

If you are a resident or organisation seeking to exercise formal oversight rights:

  • Wales Audit Office (WAO)audit.wales — for concerns about public money use or governance failures
  • Natural Resources Wales (NRW)naturalresources.wales — environmental permitting and enforcement
  • Public Services Ombudsman for Walesombudsman.wales — complaints about council conduct
  • Freedom of Information (Wales) — requests to NCC via: [email protected]

Model FOI request template for Prosiect Gwyrdd gate fee data available on request from [email protected]

📅 Upcoming Decision Points

Dates at which accountability pressure and resident engagement can most effectively influence outcomes:

  • Docks Way landfill closure — 2025/26 fiscal year (NOW — revenue impact immediate)
  • Tomorrow's Valley AD contract expiry — ~2027 (re-procurement decision required by 2026)
  • Docks Way quinquennial review — ~2026/27 (post-closure provision likely revised upward)
  • Newport Council Budget Setting — annually February/March (scrutiny cycle)
  • UK ETS EfW inclusion — 2028 (adds est. £297K–£1.48M/yr to PG obligations)
  • Newport local elections — May 2027 (all 50 seats)
Appendix F

Source Bibliography

All primary sources used in this document are listed below with sufficient detail for independent retrieval. Where documents are not publicly available online, the issuing body, date, and formal title are provided to enable a Freedom of Information or Environmental Information Regulations request. Publication dates are recorded for all sources. Secondary sources are identified as such. This bibliography supports Standard 2 (Source Attribution) of the Carbotura Community Transparency Standards v1.0.

#Source TitleIssuing BodyDateTypeAccess / Notes
1Newport City Council Waste Intelligence Report 2025Newport City Council / commissioned analysis2025Primary — commissioned reportBasis for s12 per-stream cost data, s9 fly-tipping figures, and capacity analysis throughout. Provided to Carbotura as briefing material.
2StatsWales Municipal Waste Management Statistics 2022/23Welsh Government / StatsWalesPublished 2024Primary — official statisticsstatswales.gov.wales — recycling rates, MSW volumes, landfill diversion figures
3StatsWales Environmental Enforcement Statistics 2023/24Welsh Government / StatsWalesPublished 2024Primary — official statisticsstatswales.gov.wales — fly-tipping incident counts; basis for "20% of Wales total (~40,000)" figure
4WRAP Gate Fees Survey 2024/25Eunomia Research & Consulting for WRAPJanuary 2025Primary — industry surveyPublished at wrap.org.uk — basis for EfW gate fee range (£80–120/t), AD gate fee (~£40/t), MRF rate (~£42–82/t)
5Newport City Council Annual Budget Papers 2022/23–2024/25Newport City Council2022–2025Primary — statutory financial documentsNewport Council website / Section 151 Officer publications. Basis for £21.375M budget gap and £975K Docks Way revenue figure.
6Newport City Council Statement of Accounts 2021/22Newport City CouncilPublished 2022Primary — statutory accountsNewport Council website. Basis for £6.9M Docks Way post-closure provision and 23.2% LGPS employer rate.
7Prosiect Gwyrdd — Joint Working Agreement and Contract SummaryProsiect Gwyrdd Authorities (incl. Newport City Council)2014 / publicly available summaryPrimary — public contract summaryPublicly available summary documents. Full gate fee commercially confidential. Newport's ~16% share and 25-year term are publicly disclosed. Basis for lifetime Newport obligation estimate.
8Wales Audit Office — Newport City Council Streetscene Services Scrutiny ReviewWales Audit Office (WAO)Published (date subject to FOI confirmation)Primary — official audit findingWAO finding on undisclosed conflict of interest in Wastesavers contract scrutiny. Available at audit.wales. Document title for FOI purposes: Newport City Council — Streetscene/Waste Services Scrutiny Review.
9Beyond Recycling — A Strategy to Make Wales a Zero Waste NationWelsh GovernmentPublished 2021Primary — government policy documentgov.wales — basis for 70% statutory target, 100% by 2050 aspiration, EfW moratorium (March 2021)
10Environment (Wales) Act 2016Welsh Government / Senedd Cymru2016Primary — primary legislationlegislation.gov.uk — statutory basis for recycling targets and NRW powers
11Tomorrow's Valley Anaerobic Digestion Contract — Newport City Council participationNewport City Council / Biogen / STGP~2012 (15-year term)Primary — contract reference (summary publicly disclosed)Contract details commercially confidential. Expiry ~2027 derived from disclosed 15-year term and execution date. Gate fee ~£40/t from WRAP 2024/25 Gate Fees Survey (secondary confirmation).
12UK Emissions Trading Scheme — Expansion to Energy from Waste ConsultationHM Treasury / DESNZ2023–2024Primary — government consultation documentsgov.uk — basis for 2028 ETS EfW inclusion and £297K–£1.48M Newport cost estimate (Carbotura calculation applied to Newport's contracted EfW volume)
13Newport City Council 2021 Census Area ProfileOffice for National StatisticsPublished 2023Primary — official statisticsons.gov.uk — population 159,587 (2021 Census)
14Carbotura ACM Authoritative Voice Guide v3.7Carbotura Inc.2025Primary — internal specification (Carbotura)Internal document governing ACM nomenclature, product categories, and language standards applied throughout this proposal
15Carbotura ACM Nomenclature Proofing Guide v3.7Carbotura Inc.2025Primary — internal specification (Carbotura)Internal document governing ACM terminology. Governs all product name usage in this proposal.
16Newport City Council Fly-Tipping Enforcement Data 2019/20–2023/24Newport City Council / StatsWalesPublished annuallyPrimary — official enforcement statisticsStatsWales Environmental Enforcement. Basis for 8,139 (2023/24), ~4,350 (2019/20 base), 87% surge calculation, and £343K clearance cost.
17CIPFA Code of Practice on Local Authority Accounting in the United Kingdom 2023/24CIPFA/LASAAC2023Primary — professional accounting standardcipfa.org — governs all accounting treatment references in EIR6 and Appendix B. Newport's S151 Officer and external auditors should confirm application to specific COA terms.
18Newport City Council — Wood Recycling Data Quality Review (January 2026)Newport City CouncilJanuary 2026Primary — internal review (referenced publicly)Basis for data quality flag on 71.45% recycling rate throughout this document. Outcome not yet publicly confirmed at time of writing. Newport City Council [email protected] for status enquiries.
ℹ️ Source Access & FOI Where source documents are not publicly accessible online, a model Freedom of Information request can be obtained from [email protected]. Carbotura maintains archived copies of key online sources against link failure. All commercially confidential figures (Prosiect Gwyrdd gate fee, Tomorrow's Valley contract rate) are disclosed as estimates with stated confidence levels and derivation methodology. Newport City Council officers and independent reviewers are encouraged to request primary source access from Carbotura where verification is required.
Appendix A

10-Year P&L — All Three Tiers

The following profit and loss projections cover Years 1–10 for all three proposed configurations. All figures are Carbotura's illustrative estimates based on the deployment model and Newport's published waste data. These are Newport's projected income and cost flows — not Carbotura's internal P&L. Newport's auditors and S151 Officer should verify accounting treatment before finalising any financial planning assumptions.

200 TPD — Minimum Configuration P&L

YearTonsTMC OutflowRoyalty IncomeAvoided CostNet Annual BenefitCumulative
Y145,625−£4.56M£0+£3.74M−£0.82M−£0.82M
Y273,000−£7.37M+£5.53M+£5.99M+£4.15M+£3.33M
Y373,000−£7.45M+£5.59M+£6.34M+£4.48M+£7.81M
Y473,000−£7.52M+£5.65M+£6.72M+£4.85M+£12.66M
Y573,000−£7.60M+£5.71M+£7.11M+£5.22M+£17.88M
Y673,000−£7.68M+£5.77M+£7.53M+£5.62M+£23.50M
Y773,000−£7.75M+£5.82M+£7.98M+£6.05M+£29.55M
Y873,000−£7.83M+£5.88M+£8.45M+£6.50M+£36.05M
Y973,000−£7.91M+£5.94M+£8.95M+£6.98M+£43.03M
Y1073,000−£7.99M+£6.00M+£9.47M+£7.48M+£50.51M

400 TPD — Tier 1 P&L

YearTonsTMC OutflowRoyalty IncomeAvoided CostNet Annual BenefitCumulative
Y191,250−£9.13M£0+£7.49M−£1.64M−£1.64M
Y2146,000−£14.75M+£11.0M+£11.98M+£8.23M+£6.59M
Y3146,000−£14.90M+£11.1M+£12.69M+£8.89M+£15.48M
Y4146,000−£15.05M+£11.2M+£13.44M+£9.59M+£25.07M
Y5146,000−£15.20M+£11.3M+£14.23M+£10.33M+£35.40M
Y6146,000−£15.35M+£11.4M+£15.07M+£11.12M+£46.52M
Y7146,000−£15.50M+£11.5M+£15.96M+£11.96M+£58.48M
Y8146,000−£15.65M+£11.6M+£16.90M+£12.85M+£71.33M
Y9146,000−£15.81M+£11.7M+£17.90M+£13.79M+£85.12M
Y10146,000−£15.97M+£11.9M+£18.96M+£14.89M+£100.01M

800 TPD — Tier 2 P&L

YearTonsTMC OutflowRoyalty IncomeAvoided CostNet Annual BenefitCumulative
Y1182,500−£18.25M£0+£14.98M−£3.27M−£3.27M
Y2292,000−£29.49M+£22.0M+£23.97M+£16.48M+£13.21M
Y3292,000−£29.79M+£22.2M+£25.38M+£17.79M+£31.00M
Y4292,000−£30.09M+£22.4M+£26.88M+£19.19M+£50.19M
Y5292,000−£30.39M+£22.7M+£28.47M+£20.78M+£70.97M
Y6292,000−£30.70M+£22.9M+£30.14M+£22.34M+£93.31M
Y7292,000−£31.01M+£23.1M+£31.92M+£24.01M+£117.32M
Y8292,000−£31.32M+£23.3M+£33.80M+£25.78M+£143.10M
Y9292,000−£31.63M+£23.5M+£35.80M+£27.67M+£170.77M
Y10292,000−£31.95M+£23.8M+£37.92M+£29.77M+£200.54M

All figures illustrative. TMC Fee at £100/t (Year 1) escalating 1%/yr. Royalty = 120% × prior-year TMC outflow × tons, from Y2. Avoided Cost = legacy FWDC (£82/t × 5.9%/yr escalation) × tons. Not a contractual commitment.

Appendix B

Balance Sheet Snapshots

Balance Sheet ItemCurrent (Status Quo)Year 1 CODYear 5 (With ACM)Year 10 (With ACM)
Accumulated Revenue Surplus (Waste-related)Declining (budget gap)TMC Fee only; no Royalty yetRoyalty income accumulating; surplus improvingStructural surplus from Royalty + avoided costs
IAS 37 Environmental Provisions£6.9M+ (Docks Way) + PFAS unquantifiedDocks Way provision unchanged; no new ACM provisionsNo new provisions from ACM stream; Docks Way amortisingLegacy provisions declining; ACM adds no new obligations
Long-Term Debt (Waste-related)Prosiect Gwyrdd off-BS (~£160–180M)No new debt from ACM (Carbotura finances)PG liability unchanged; ACM royalty partially offsetsPG contract approaching 2041 end; no new commitment
Revenue DiversificationHeavily WG grant-dependentFirst Royalty billing yearRoyalty ~£11–18M/yr established; WG dependency reducingPrivate sector manufacturing revenue stream mature
PFAS Disclosure RiskUnquantified; Off-BSTitle transfer arrests forward PFAS accrual from ACMDocks Way legacy PFAS remains; ACM adds nothing newDocks Way remediation option (Exogenesis) available

Indicative balance sheet narrative. Newport's S151 Officer and external auditors must confirm specific accounting treatments. This does not constitute a professional accounting opinion.

Appendix C

Cash Flow Summary

Cash Flow ItemDirectionTiming400 TPD Estimate
TMC Fee PaymentsOutflowMonthly from COD (Q3 2027)~£14.75–15.97M/yr (Y2–Y10)
Circular Royalty™ ReceiptsInflowAnnual, Year 2 onward~£11.0M (Y2) rising to £14.9M (Y30)
Avoided Disposal Cost Cash ReleaseInflow (indirect)From COD — budget saving~£7.5M (Y1) rising to £47.6M (Y30)
Business Rates (ACM facility)InflowFrom COD (annual)~£700K–£1.2M/yr
Carbotura CAPEX (Newport pays)£0NeverNot applicable
Docks Way Post-Closure MonitoringOutflow (existing obligation)Annual (30–60 yr from closure)Existing provision; unchanged by ACM
Net Cash Position Year 5 (400 TPD)Net Inflow+~£13.5M/yr net positive
Appendix D

Extended Tier Comparison

Metric200 TPD Min400 TPD T1800 TPD T2
Annual Processing Capacity73,000 t/yr146,000 t/yr292,000 t/yr
Carbotura CAPEX~£102M~£189M~£362M
Newport CAPEX£0£0£0
Direct Jobs78 FTE156 FTE312 FTE
Annual Payroll~£8.6M/yr~£17.2M/yr~£34.3M/yr
TMC Fee Year 1~£4.56M~£9.13M~£18.25M
Circular Royalty™ Year 2~£5.5M~£11.0M~£22.0M
Year 2 Net Position+£4.15M+£8.23M+£16.48M
Year 10 Cumulative Benefit~£50.5M~£100M~£200.5M
30-Year Total Royalty~£278M~£556M~£1.11B
30-Year Total Avoided Cost~£480M~£960M~£1.92B
30-Year Combined Benefit~£758M~£1.52B~£3.03B
Prosiect Gwyrdd ImpactComplementary; Newport MSW onlyNewport MSW + ~76K t regionalNewport + South Wales regional hub
Regional Import Capacity~3,238 t/yr spare~76,238 t/yr spare~222,238 t/yr spare
Appendix E

Glossary — ACM Nomenclature

The following definitions apply throughout this document and are consistent with the Carbotura ACM Authoritative Voice Guide v3.7 and Nomenclature Proofing Guide v3.7. Terms are listed alphabetically.

TermDefinitionNote / Do Not Use
ACM (Advanced Circular Manufacturing)Carbotura's proprietary molecular reforming technology platform. Classifies as manufacturing under NAICS 325xxx/331xxx.Do not use "waste processing," "incineration," or "energy-from-waste"
Captive PEMProton Exchange Membrane hydrogen fuel cell system, captive to the ACM facility, enabling Island Mode energy independence.Do not use "grid-connected power"
Circular Offtake Agreement (COA)The 30-year partnership agreement between Carbotura Inc. and Newport City Council governing TMC Fee, Circular Royalty™, title transfer, and all commercial terms.Do not use "waste disposal contract," "service contract," or "PFI"
Circular Royalty™The annual payment from Carbotura Inc. to Newport City Council, equal to 120% × prior-year TMC Fee outflow × annual tonnage, beginning Year 2. Escalates 1%/yr.Do not use "rebate," "discount," or "income sharing"
COD (Commercial Operations Date)The date on which the ACM facility commences commercial manufacturing operations under the COA. Target: Q3 2027.Do not use "operational date," "launch date"
Exogenesis ProtocolACM protocol for processing legacy landfill material and contaminated soils. Relevant to Docks Way post-closure remediation opportunity.Do not use "landfill mining"
FWDC (Facility-Weighted Disposal Cost)Newport's volume-weighted average disposal cost across all streams: £82/t. Used to calculate the TMC Fee floor trigger.Do not use "gate fee," "tipping fee," or "disposal charge"
Island ModeACM facility operational state in which the facility is fully self-sufficient for energy, powered by Captive PEM using its own Renewable Hydrogen output.Do not use "off-grid"
LiquifactACM terminology for leachate. The Liquifact Protocol processes all liquid fractions into Renewable Refined Water (DI).Do not use "leachate" when describing ACM facility outputs
Manufacturing FeedstockAll materials received by the ACM facility for processing. Includes MSW, commercial waste, food waste, and garden waste streams. Title transfers to Carbotura Inc. at receipt.Do not use "waste," "rubbish," "garbage," or "refuse" in reference to ACM inputs
Recyclotron ProtocolThe primary ACM processing protocol. Operates in anoxic electromagnetic conditions. No combustion, no flame, no ash, no flue gas.Do not use "incinerator," "furnace," or "burner"
Renewable [Product]™ACM-branded manufactured product categories: Renewable Graphite™, Renewable Hydrogen™, Renewable Industrial Gases™, Renewable Refined Water™, Renewable Advanced Carbon Products™, Renewable Mineral Alloys™, Renewable Biogases™, Renewable Oils™, Renewable Salts™.Do not use "recovered material," "recycled output," or "secondary aggregate"
TMC Fee (Total Manufacturing Cost Fee)Newport's per-tonne payment to Carbotura Inc. under the COA. Set at £100/t (regional floor rate). Escalates 1%/yr for 30 years.Do not use "disposal fee," "gate fee," "tipping fee," or "incineration charge"
Title TransferThe legal mechanism by which ownership of manufacturing feedstock passes from Newport City Council to Carbotura Inc. at the facility gate. Eliminates Newport's IAS 37 forward environmental provisions for that material.Do not imply Newport retains title or environmental liability post-transfer